Sat, Jan 13, 2024·United Center, Chicago
Dallas Stars 3, Chicago Blackhawks 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 08 | 09 | 313 | 330 |
| CHI | 06 | 119 | 010 | 135 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 12:56CHIBoris KatchoukAssists: Zachary Sanford · Backhand, 0.16 xG0–1
- P3 2:32DALMatt DuchenePPAssists: Roope Hintz, Jason Robertson · Snap, 0.10 xG1–1
- P3 14:54DALMason MarchmentGWGAssists: Evgenii Dadonov, Joel Hanley · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–1
- P3 19:37DALJoe PavelskiENAssists: Roope Hintz, Jamie Benn · Wrist, 0.75 xG3–1
Penalties (7)
- P1 3:58CHISeth Jones: Tripping2 min
- P1 9:24DALMason Marchment: Roughing2 min
- P1 9:24DALMason Marchment: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:04CHINikita Zaitsev: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:08DALSam Steel: Fighting5 min
- P2 16:08CHIRyan Donato: Fighting5 min
- P3 2:24CHIJaycob Megna: Cross checking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kurashev won the faceoff against Faksa
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestBenn – Smith – Hintz3:31
xG 0.29–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–0goals 0–0
- Benn – Dadonov – Johnston5:15
xG 0.37–0.09 (80%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Dadonov – Faksa – Marchment3:47
xG 0.22–0.06 (78%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
- Pavelski – Steel – Johnston4:00
xG 0.05–0.06 (48%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLindell – Lundkvist6:03
xG 0.22–0.06 (78%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Hakanpää – Lindell9:15
xG 0.40–0.25 (62%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Lundkvist – Harley2:00
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestBlackwell – Dickinson – Anderson10:16
xG 0.51–0.16 (76%)attempts 15–9goals 0–0
- Sanford – Donato – Katchouk9:43
xG 0.57–0.36 (61%)attempts 9–11goals 1–1
- Raddysh – Pitlick – Kurashev10:58
xG 0.49–0.45 (52%)attempts 17–8goals 0–0
- Entwistle – Guttman – Reichel9:08
xG 0.21–0.29 (42%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJones – Vlasic16:49
xG 0.68–0.25 (73%)attempts 17–16goals 0–1
- Zaitsev – Korchinski13:22
xG 0.66–0.61 (52%)attempts 16–15goals 1–0
- Murphy – Megna14:53
xG 0.35–0.42 (46%)attempts 15–17goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).