Sat, Jan 13, 2024·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Boston Bruins 4, St. Louis Blues 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 18 | 114 | 112 | 11 | 435 |
| STL | 17 | 17 | 19 | 00 | 323 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:02BOSBrad MarchandAssists: Charlie Coyle · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 6:07STLKevin HayesAssists: Kasperi Kapanen, Nick Leddy · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–1
- P2 6:26BOSCharlie McAvoyAssists: Jesper Boqvist, James van Riemsdyk · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–1
- P2 10:57STLJake NeighboursPPAssists: Jordan Kyrou, Robert Thomas · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–2
- P3 7:43BOSBrad MarchandPPAssists: David Pastrnak, James van Riemsdyk · Snap, 0.20 xG3–2
- P3 14:47STLOskar SundqvistPPAssists: Scott Perunovich, Brayden Schenn · Tip-in, 0.12 xG3–3
- OT 1:10BOSCharlie McAvoyGWGAssists: David Pastrnak · Snap, 0.16 xG4–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 10:48STLAlexey Toropchenko: Cross checking2 min
- P2 10:37BOSBrad Marchand: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 14:34STLJordan Kyrou: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:38STLBrayden Schenn: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 7:25STLOskar Sundqvist: Interference2 min
- P3 8:19BOSJames van Riemsdyk: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 13:17BOSHampus Lindholm: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Schenn won the faceoff against Coyle
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestHeinen – DeBrusk – Frederic7:04
xG 0.72–0.01 (99%)attempts 13–2goals 0–0
- Marchand – Coyle – Pastrnak8:20
xG 0.70–0.11 (87%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Marchand – Coyle – DeBrusk3:44
xG 0.31–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 1–0
- van Riemsdyk – Geekie – Boqvist4:51
xG 0.28–0.00 (100%)attempts 11–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLindholm – Wotherspoon14:02
xG 0.94–0.24 (80%)attempts 16–6goals 0–0
- Shattenkirk – Lohrei9:46
xG 0.67–0.41 (62%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Grzelcyk – McAvoy16:48
xG 0.49–0.49 (50%)attempts 14–13goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- Hayes – Kapanen – Toropchenko9:57
xG 0.46–0.57 (45%)attempts 8–14goals 1–0
- Schenn – Saad – Neighbours8:00
xG 0.27–0.42 (40%)attempts 3–10goals 0–0
- Sundqvist – Walker – Blais5:34
xG 0.13–0.34 (28%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Buchnevich – Kyrou – Thomas14:11
xG 0.43–1.02 (30%)attempts 11–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKrug – Kessel3:57
xG 0.24–0.09 (72%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Perunovich – Kessel8:12
xG 0.05–0.21 (20%)attempts 3–9goals 0–0
- Faulk – Perunovich3:11
xG 0.03–0.25 (10%)attempts 1–4goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).