Mon, Jan 15, 2024·Amerant Bank Arena, Sunrise
Anaheim Ducks 5, Florida Panthers 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 15 | 210 | 19 | 12 | 526 |
| FLA | 211 | 211 | 010 | 01 | 433 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:29FLASam BennettPPAssists: Evan Rodrigues, Oliver Ekman-Larsson · Wrist, 0.18 xG0–1
- P1 17:35FLASam ReinhartSHAssists: Niko Mikkola · Backhand, 0.13 xG0–2
- P1 19:56ANAAlex KillornAssists: Adam Henrique · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–2
- P2 5:24ANAAdam HenriqueSHAssists: Frank Vatrano · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–2
- P2 9:36FLACarter VerhaeghePPAssists: Brandon Montour, Aleksander Barkov · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–3
- P2 12:49FLASam BennettAssists: Matthew Tkachuk, Carter Verhaeghe · Slap, 0.13 xG2–4
- P2 14:58ANAJakob SilfverbergAssists: Sam Carrick · Backhand, 0.15 xG3–4
- P3 3:45ANATroy TerryAssists: Jackson LaCombe · Backhand, 0.09 xG4–4
- OT 0:48ANAAlex KillornGWGAssists: Frank Vatrano, Cam Fowler · Wrist, 0.16 xG5–4
Penalties (15)
- P1 6:43ANASam Carrick: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P1 16:24FLAOliver Ekman-Larsson: Slashing2 min
- P2 4:35ANATroy Terry: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:55FLASam Reinhart: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:47ANARyan Strome: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 9:59FLAOliver Ekman-Larsson: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:10FLAAnton Lundell: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:58ANAAlex Killorn: Cross checking2 min
- P2 17:58FLASam Bennett: Interference2 min
- P3 13:27ANAMason McTavish: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:27FLAMatthew Tkachuk: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:27ANAFrank Vatrano: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:27FLASam Bennett: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:22FLANiko Mikkola: Roughing removing opponents helmet2 min
- P3 17:28ANAAlex Killorn: Holding the stick2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Carlsson won the faceoff against Barkov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestKillorn – Terry – Carlsson13:47
xG 0.50–0.32 (61%)attempts 15–14goals 0–0
- Silfverberg – Carrick – Johnston5:57
xG 0.29–0.17 (63%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
- Henrique – Strome – McGinn2:45
xG 0.09–0.03 (73%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- McGinn – Vatrano – Lundeström2:33
xG 0.01–0.03 (18%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGudas – LaCombe14:27
xG 0.58–0.43 (58%)attempts 13–19goals 1–0
- Fowler – Lyubushkin12:04
xG 0.34–0.41 (45%)attempts 11–10goals 1–0
- Vaakanainen – Lindstrom10:33
xG 0.05–0.72 (6%)attempts 4–13goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestVerhaeghe – Bennett – Tkachuk12:38
xG 0.80–0.07 (92%)attempts 15–9goals 1–0
- Lomberg – Luostarinen – Lundell8:51
xG 0.19–0.15 (55%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Stenlund – Lockwood – Gadjovich5:31
xG 0.13–0.24 (36%)attempts 7–3goals 0–1
- Barkov – Reinhart – Rodrigues9:06
xG 0.35–0.49 (42%)attempts 9–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEkblad – Forsling12:38
xG 0.42–0.33 (56%)attempts 16–11goals 0–0
- Ekman-Larsson – Mahura9:51
xG 0.48–0.42 (54%)attempts 11–9goals 0–2
- Montour – Mikkola16:02
xG 0.46–0.69 (40%)attempts 16–15goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).