Mon, Jan 15, 2024·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Los Angeles Kings 5, Carolina Hurricanes 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 19 | 010 | 47 | 526 |
| CAR | 09 | 113 | 110 | 232 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:24LAKTrevor MooreAssists: Phillip Danault, Vladislav Gavrikov · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–0
- P2 5:38CARJordan MartinookAssists: Seth Jarvis, Brent Burns · Snap, 0.18 xG1–1
- P3 1:01LAKPhillip DanaultAssists: Matt Roy, Vladislav Gavrikov · Poke, 0.07 xG2–1
- P3 2:21LAKAlex LaferriereGWGAssists: Mikey Anderson, Pierre-Luc Dubois · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–1
- P3 5:20LAKPierre-Luc DuboisAssists: Jaret Anderson-Dolan, Mikey Anderson · Slap, 0.05 xG4–1
- P3 8:58CARJack DruryAssists: Stefan Noesen, Jalen Chatfield · Backhand, 0.17 xG4–2
- P3 18:44LAKTrevor MooreENAssists: Phillip Danault, Matt Roy · Wrist, 0.75 xG5–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 1:51LAKJaret Anderson-Dolan: Interference2 min
- P1 9:07CARDmitry Orlov: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:41CARSebastian Aho: Holding2 min
- P1 18:11LAKKevin Fiala: Slashing2 min
- P2 8:43LAKVladislav Gavrikov: Holding2 min
- P2 11:14CARStefan Noesen: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:52CARJesperi Kotkaniemi: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:15LAKAdrian Kempe: Interference2 min
- P3 16:50LAKTrevor Lewis: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Aho won the faceoff against Danault
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestDanault – Fiala – Moore11:13
xG 0.40–0.33 (55%)attempts 7–10goals 1–0
- Kopitar – Kempe – Byfield10:47
xG 0.30–0.43 (41%)attempts 11–8goals 0–1
- Dubois – Anderson-Dolan – Laferriere3:41
xG 0.08–0.26 (23%)attempts 3–5goals 1–0
- Lewis – Anderson-Dolan – Laferriere2:00
xG 0.00–0.51 (0%)attempts 1–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDoughty – Anderson15:16
xG 0.88–0.33 (73%)attempts 17–11goals 2–0
- Gavrikov – Roy13:29
xG 0.52–0.53 (50%)attempts 11–13goals 2–0
- Englund – Spence9:21
xG 0.14–0.70 (16%)attempts 7–14goals 0–1
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestFast – Lemieux – Drury3:33
xG 0.28–0.06 (82%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Noesen – Bunting – Kotkaniemi4:37
xG 0.27–0.09 (76%)attempts 6–3goals 0–1
- Staal – Martinook – Jarvis11:25
xG 0.50–0.47 (52%)attempts 9–13goals 1–0
- Teravainen – Aho – Svechnikov10:50
xG 0.31–0.38 (45%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBurns – Slavin12:26
xG 1.09–0.57 (66%)attempts 19–14goals 1–1
- Orlov – Chatfield12:30
xG 0.47–0.36 (57%)attempts 11–7goals 1–2
- Skjei – Pesce14:17
xG 0.26–0.69 (28%)attempts 13–17goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).