Mon, Jan 15, 2024·Centre Bell, Montreal
Colorado Avalanche 3, Montréal Canadiens 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 113 | 113 | 19 | 335 |
| MTL | 116 | 110 | 28 | 434 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:28COLRoss ColtonPPAssists: Jonathan Drouin, Cale Makar · Wrist, 0.28 xG1–0
- P1 7:17MTLJuraj SlafkovskýPPAssists: Nick Suzuki, Cole Caufield · Wrist, 0.34 xG1–1
- P2 1:01COLCale MakarAssists: Samuel Girard, Nathan MacKinnon · Slap, 0.03 xG2–1
- P2 16:08MTLRafael Harvey-PinardAssists: Jake Evans, Brendan Gallagher · Wrist, 0.23 xG2–2
- P3 1:52MTLCole CaufieldPPAssists: Nick Suzuki, Mike Matheson · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–3
- P3 9:37COLDevon ToewsAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Cale Makar · Snap, 0.09 xG3–3
- P3 15:50MTLJoel ArmiaGWGAssists: Sean Monahan, David Savard · Backhand, 0.17 xG3–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 3:10MTLMichael Pezzetta: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 6:53COLSam Malinski: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 9:43MTLJoel Armia: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:18MTLRafael Harvey-Pinard: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 0:29COLMikko Rantanen: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 6:11MTLJordan Harris: Elbowing2 min
- P3 8:56MTLJake Evans: Embellishment2 min
- P3 8:56COLJosh Manson: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Suzuki won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestColton – O'Connor – Kiviranta6:01
xG 0.52–0.09 (85%)attempts 16–4goals 0–0
- Cogliano – Johansen – Polin9:22
xG 0.16–0.22 (42%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- MacKinnon – Drouin – Rantanen16:52
xG 0.93–1.28 (42%)attempts 28–19goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestManson – Girard10:10
xG 0.48–0.33 (59%)attempts 17–7goals 0–1
- Toews – Makar15:25
xG 0.77–0.66 (54%)attempts 24–12goals 0–0
- Johnson – Malinski5:19
xG 0.21–0.11 (66%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestGallagher – Evans – Harvey-Pinard9:46
xG 0.64–0.44 (59%)attempts 8–15goals 1–0
- Stephens – Pezzetta – Ylonen3:21
xG 0.07–0.01 (86%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Suzuki – Caufield – Slafkovský14:42
xG 0.75–0.82 (48%)attempts 15–23goals 0–1
- Armia – Monahan – Roy9:02
xG 0.13–0.31 (29%)attempts 7–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMatheson – Guhle15:06
xG 0.75–0.51 (60%)attempts 15–18goals 0–1
- Savard – Struble15:19
xG 0.35–0.48 (42%)attempts 12–25goals 1–0
- Kovacevic – Harris10:44
xG 0.23–0.37 (38%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).