Mon, Jan 15, 2024·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Philadelphia Flyers 4, St. Louis Blues 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 013 | 220 | 29 | 442 |
| STL | 09 | 19 | 112 | 230 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:03PHIScott LaughtonAssists: Garnet Hathaway, Sean Walker · Snap, 0.08 xG1–0
- P2 18:19STLOskar SundqvistPPAssists: Brayden Schenn, Scott Perunovich · Wrist, 0.26 xG1–1
- P2 19:53PHIRyan PoehlingAssists: Egor Zamula, Cam Atkinson · Bat, 0.07 xG2–1
- P3 1:18STLBrandon SaadAssists: Brayden Schenn, Jordan Kyrou · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–2
- P3 14:27PHIOwen TippettGWGAssists: Travis Konecny, Morgan Frost · Backhand, 0.15 xG3–2
- P3 19:06PHIJoel FarabeeENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.74 xG4–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 8:33PHINick Seeler: High sticking2 min
- P1 9:27STLJake Neighbours: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:56PHISean Walker: Boarding2 min
- P2 10:50STLJordan Kyrou: High sticking2 min
- P2 17:55PHIGarnet Hathaway: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Frost won the faceoff against Schenn
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestKonecny – Tippett – Frost12:22
xG 1.00–0.41 (71%)attempts 16–16goals 1–0
- Atkinson – Poehling – Farabee9:33
xG 0.57–0.22 (72%)attempts 14–9goals 1–1
- Laughton – Hathaway – Foerster10:49
xG 0.64–0.42 (60%)attempts 18–11goals 1–0
- Deslauriers – Cates – Brink8:19
xG 0.10–0.16 (38%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSanheim – York17:09
xG 0.70–0.18 (80%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
- Seeler – Walker17:15
xG 1.08–0.67 (62%)attempts 30–22goals 1–0
- Ristolainen – Zamula12:58
xG 0.79–0.47 (63%)attempts 15–12goals 2–1
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSundqvist – Walker – Blais6:27
xG 0.28–0.02 (93%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Buchnevich – Kyrou – Thomas4:53
xG 0.39–0.19 (67%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Buchnevich – Kapanen – Thomas9:07
xG 0.36–0.45 (45%)attempts 16–6goals 0–0
- Hayes – Toropchenko – Neighbours3:41
xG 0.04–0.19 (18%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLeddy – Parayko15:56
xG 0.83–0.73 (53%)attempts 24–15goals 0–0
- Faulk – Krug14:01
xG 0.37–1.04 (26%)attempts 16–28goals 0–3
- Perunovich – Kessel15:08
xG 0.22–1.19 (15%)attempts 6–24goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).