Tue, Jan 16, 2024·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Colorado Avalanche 7, Ottawa Senators 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 111 | 210 | 413 | 734 |
| OTT | 115 | 312 | 013 | 440 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:29OTTDrake BathersonPPAssists: Claude Giroux, Thomas Chabot · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 10:07COLMikko RantanenAssists: Cale Makar, Nathan MacKinnon · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 1:21OTTRidly GreigAssists: Claude Giroux, Brady Tkachuk · Poke, 0.19 xG1–2
- P2 2:27COLJason PolinAssists: Fredrik Olofsson, Sam Malinski · Snap, 0.06 xG2–2
- P2 7:21OTTRidly GreigAssists: Brady Tkachuk, Jake Sanderson · Snap, 0.17 xG2–3
- P2 11:04OTTJake SandersonAssists: Claude Giroux, Brady Tkachuk · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–4
- P2 16:18COLMikko RantanenAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Samuel Girard · Snap, 0.11 xG3–4
- P3 4:04COLMiles WoodAssists: Logan O'Connor, Devon Toews · Snap, 0.18 xG4–4
- P3 8:14COLSam MalinskiPPGWGAssists: Samuel Girard, Ryan Johansen · Wrist, 0.05 xG5–4
- P3 12:24COLLogan O'ConnorAssists: Miles Wood, Samuel Girard · Snap, 0.08 xG6–4
- P3 15:16COLDevon ToewsENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.34 xG7–4
Penalties (10)
- P1 9:23COLRoss Colton: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 9:23COLRoss Colton: Roughing2 min
- P1 9:23OTTJake Sanderson: Roughing2 min
- P1 13:25COLJoel Kiviranta: Interference2 min
- P1 13:25OTTMathieu Joseph: Embellishment2 min
- P2 3:43OTTClaude Giroux: Slashing2 min
- P2 12:14COLFredrik Olofsson: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:15OTTRidly Greig: Cross checking2 min
- P3 6:14OTTClaude Giroux: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 19:16COLKurtis MacDermid: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Colton won the faceoff against Stützle
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestMacDermid – Olofsson – Polin6:04
xG 0.22–0.05 (81%)attempts 6–8goals 1–0
- Wood – Colton – O'Connor5:53
xG 0.81–0.66 (55%)attempts 9–14goals 2–0
- Colton – O'Connor – Kiviranta5:23
xG 0.27–0.26 (51%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Cogliano – Johansen – Kiviranta3:19
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestToews – Makar12:02
xG 0.76–0.68 (53%)attempts 16–15goals 1–0
- Manson – Girard11:54
xG 0.48–0.63 (43%)attempts 13–16goals 2–0
- Johnson – Malinski11:44
xG 0.62–0.81 (43%)attempts 6–21goals 1–1
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Tkachuk – Greig13:59
xG 1.44–0.29 (83%)attempts 28–6goals 3–1
- Tarasenko – Batherson – Stützle12:20
xG 1.05–0.58 (65%)attempts 14–15goals 0–0
- MacEwen – Kastelic – Kelly4:39
xG 0.35–0.13 (73%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Kubalik – Chartier – Joseph9:16
xG 0.31–0.70 (31%)attempts 9–9goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestSanderson – Zub13:23
xG 1.39–0.41 (77%)attempts 25–7goals 2–1
- Chabot – Chychrun16:50
xG 1.02–0.98 (51%)attempts 26–22goals 1–1
- Hamonic – Brannstrom12:50
xG 0.65–0.70 (48%)attempts 9–14goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).