Tue, Jan 16, 2024·Capital One Arena, Washington
Anaheim Ducks 0, Washington Capitals 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 03 | 09 | 012 | 024 |
| WSH | 19 | 011 | 18 | 228 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:22WSHEthan BearGWGAssists: T.J. Oshie, Nick Jensen · Snap, 0.25 xG0–1
- P3 19:02WSHTom WilsonENAssists: Martin Fehérváry, Nic Dowd · Wrist, 0.43 xG0–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 3:25WSHHendrix Lapierre: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 9:14WSHJoel Edmundson: Fighting5 min
- P1 9:14ANARoss Johnston: Fighting5 min
- P1 18:18ANARyan Strome: Slashing2 min
- P1 18:18WSHAnthony Mantha: Slashing2 min
- P2 6:08ANAIlya Lyubushkin: Slashing2 min
- P2 14:36WSHEthan Bear: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McTavish won the faceoff against Lapierre
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestSilfverberg – Lundeström – McTavish9:22
xG 0.50–0.30 (62%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Killorn – Terry – Carlsson12:01
xG 0.35–0.26 (58%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
- Carrick – Johnston – Groulx6:09
xG 0.12–0.28 (31%)attempts 3–10goals 0–0
- Henrique – Strome – Vatrano8:56
xG 0.03–0.73 (4%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Hagg – LaCombe11:51
xG 0.56–0.53 (51%)attempts 16–9goals 0–0
- Fowler – Lyubushkin19:21
xG 0.40–0.90 (31%)attempts 17–18goals 0–0
- Vaakanainen – Lindstrom14:01
xG 0.16–0.75 (18%)attempts 9–13goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOshie – Pacioretty – Strome10:04
xG 0.85–0.31 (73%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Dowd – Aube-Kubel – Malenstyn8:43
xG 0.44–0.08 (84%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Mantha – McMichael – Protas11:20
xG 0.34–0.06 (85%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Kuznetsov – Wilson – Lapierre7:41
xG 0.07–0.19 (28%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarlson – Edmundson3:53
xG 0.41–0.03 (93%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Carlson – Fehérváry11:21
xG 0.37–0.08 (83%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Carlson – Alexeyev2:38
xG 0.20–0.06 (78%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).