Tue, Jan 16, 2024·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Los Angeles Kings 1, Dallas Stars 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 03 | 116 | 013 | 132 |
| DAL | 29 | 08 | 311 | 528 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:21DALRoope HintzAssists: Wyatt Johnston, Jason Robertson · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
- P1 15:21DALEvgenii DadonovGWGAssists: Craig Smith, Esa Lindell · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–2
- P2 1:31LAKDrew DoughtyPPAssists: Phillip Danault, Adrian Kempe · Slap, 0.09 xG1–2
- P3 5:49DALWyatt JohnstonAssists: Roope Hintz, Jason Robertson · Snap, 0.12 xG1–3
- P3 6:52DALJoe PavelskiAssists: Thomas Harley, Evgenii Dadonov · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–4
- P3 9:33DALSam SteelSHAssists: Radek Faksa · Snap, 0.26 xG1–5
Penalties (5)
- P1 9:47LAKQuinton Byfield: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:22DALRoope Hintz: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 1:31DALRadek Faksa: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:41DALTyler Seguin: Interference2 min
- P3 15:15DALJoel Hanley: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johnston won the faceoff against Danault
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestLewis – Grundstrom – Kaliyev3:39
xG 0.32–0.05 (87%)attempts 6–1goals 0–1
- Dubois – Kaliyev – Laferriere8:25
xG 0.51–0.45 (53%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- Kopitar – Kempe – Byfield9:25
xG 0.42–0.37 (53%)attempts 13–8goals 0–1
- Danault – Fiala – Moore12:19
xG 0.47–0.50 (49%)attempts 14–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEnglund – Clarke3:07
xG 0.31–0.05 (85%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Doughty – Anderson8:57
xG 0.48–0.35 (58%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Gavrikov – Roy14:03
xG 0.74–0.71 (51%)attempts 14–12goals 0–2
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestHintz – Robertson – Johnston11:44
xG 1.08–0.42 (72%)attempts 18–10goals 2–0
- Dadonov – Smith – Faksa8:20
xG 0.43–0.21 (68%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
- Duchene – Seguin – Marchment12:52
xG 1.14–1.07 (52%)attempts 15–22goals 0–0
- Pavelski – Benn – Steel9:38
xG 0.02–0.69 (3%)attempts 6–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHanley – Harley14:51
xG 1.06–0.49 (68%)attempts 17–13goals 1–0
- Suter – Lundkvist14:23
xG 0.67–0.63 (51%)attempts 14–15goals 0–0
- Hanley – Lundkvist2:37
xG 0.01–0.28 (3%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).