Tue, Jan 16, 2024·Canada Life Centre, Winnipeg
New York Islanders 2, Winnipeg Jets 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 111 | 015 | 111 | 237 |
| WPG | 113 | 218 | 113 | 444 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:41WPGGabriel VilardiAssists: Adam Lowry, Josh Morrissey · Tip-in, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 15:53NYIAnders LeeAssists: Mike Reilly, Sebastian Aho · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 15:19WPGNeal PionkPPAssists: Cole Perfetti, Nate Schmidt · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–2
- P2 17:58WPGMason AppletonGWGAssists: Dominic Toninato, Dylan DeMelo · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–3
- P3 0:35NYIAnders LeeAssists: Bo Horvat · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–3
- P3 18:38WPGKyle ConnorENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.75 xG2–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 13:51WPGDylan DeMelo: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:30NYIAnders Lee: Hooking2 min
- P2 1:04NYIMike Reilly: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:40WPGVladislav Namestnikov: Holding2 min
- P2 13:50NYIScott Mayfield: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 15:42NYIMike Reilly: Cross checking2 min
- P3 15:38NYINoah Dobson: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Horvat won the faceoff against Lowry
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestPalmieri – Nelson – Fasching8:06
xG 0.62–0.44 (59%)attempts 13–10goals 0–1
- Lee – Horvat – Wahlstrom5:51
xG 0.35–0.17 (67%)attempts 11–1goals 1–0
- Clutterbuck – Barzal – Holmstrom5:40
xG 0.12–0.07 (62%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Martin – Pageau – Gauthier6:03
xG 0.13–0.31 (30%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPelech – Aho5:10
xG 0.67–0.15 (82%)attempts 9–4goals 0–1
- Reilly – Dobson2:27
xG 0.23–0.10 (71%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Mayfield – Pelech7:58
xG 0.25–0.47 (35%)attempts 6–8goals 0–1
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestLowry – Connor – Vilardi10:38
xG 0.63–0.39 (62%)attempts 9–15goals 1–1
- Iafallo – Barron – Kupari6:27
xG 0.37–0.19 (67%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Namestnikov – Ehlers – Perfetti7:38
xG 0.23–0.20 (54%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Niederreiter – Toninato – Appleton9:10
xG 0.54–0.51 (51%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDillon – Pionk12:39
xG 1.23–0.60 (67%)attempts 17–18goals 0–1
- Schmidt – Samberg10:36
xG 0.20–0.32 (38%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
- DeMelo – Morrissey15:12
xG 0.47–0.72 (40%)attempts 12–15goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).