Thu, Jan 18, 2024·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Chicago Blackhawks 0, Buffalo Sabres 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 04 | 08 | 07 | 019 |
| BUF | 013 | 17 | 211 | 331 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 12:27BUFZemgus GirgensonsGWGAssists: Ryan Johnson, Peyton Krebs · Tip-in, 0.08 xG0–1
- P3 2:57BUFJJ PeterkaAssists: Ryan Johnson, Jack Quinn · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–2
- P3 6:06BUFRasmus DahlinPPAssists: Casey Mittelstadt, Alex Tuch · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–3
Penalties (11)
- P1 4:47CHIKevin Korchinski: Holding2 min
- P1 12:21CHISeth Jones: Cross checking2 min
- P2 3:18BUFRasmus Dahlin: Roughing2 min
- P2 5:21BUFRasmus Dahlin: Interference bench2 min
- P2 9:24CHIIsaak Phillips: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:12BUFEric Robinson: Tripping2 min
- P3 0:46CHIRem Pitlick: Interference2 min
- P3 5:19CHIPhilipp Kurashev: Boarding5 min · PPG
- P3 17:12BUFJordan Greenway: Interference2 min
- P3 19:50CHIJarred Tinordi: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:50BUFJordan Greenway: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dickinson won the faceoff against Mittelstadt
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestSanford – Katchouk – Johnson6:11
xG 0.44–0.09 (83%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Raddysh – Pitlick – Kurashev7:32
xG 0.28–0.09 (76%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Blackwell – Anderson – Entwistle2:25
xG 0.01–0.05 (20%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Blackwell – Dickinson – Anderson5:21
xG 0.00–0.12 (0%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPhillips – Korchinski2:33
xG 0.39–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Jones – Korchinski2:10
xG 0.19–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Jones – Vlasic9:52
xG 0.27–0.17 (61%)attempts 2–6goals 0–1
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestGirgensons – Mittelstadt – Quinn5:14
xG 0.38–0.01 (98%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Tuch – Thompson – Benson7:44
xG 0.23–0.14 (63%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Okposo – Olofsson – Greenway3:54
xG 0.18–0.09 (67%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Robinson – Krebs – Peterka5:45
xG 0.29–0.23 (56%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Power6:45
xG 0.37–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
- Jokiharju – Dahlin10:53
xG 0.41–0.07 (86%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Clifton – Power2:26
xG 0.19–0.04 (84%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).