Thu, Jan 18, 2024·TD Garden, Boston
Colorado Avalanche 2, Boston Bruins 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 112 | 116 | 04 | 232 |
| BOS | 314 | 08 | 29 | 531 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:44BOSDavid PastrnakAssists: Charlie Coyle · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 4:58BOSJakub LaukoAssists: Morgan Geekie, Hampus Lindholm · Backhand, 0.15 xG0–2
- P1 7:32COLMiles WoodAssists: Devon Toews, Sam Malinski · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–2
- P1 14:52BOSJake DeBruskGWGAssists: Parker Wotherspoon, Pavel Zacha · Tip-in, 0.06 xG1–3
- P2 16:20COLNathan MacKinnonAssists: Josh Manson, Cale Makar · Snap, 0.19 xG2–3
- P3 17:24BOSDavid PastrnakPPAssists: Jake DeBrusk · Tip-in, 0.06 xG2–4
- P3 19:38BOSDavid PastrnakENAssists: Charlie Coyle · Wrist, 0.75 xG2–5
Penalties (5)
- P1 5:29BOSOskar Steen: Tripping2 min
- P1 14:52COLJason Polin: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P2 18:15COLJosh Manson: Interference2 min
- P2 19:19BOSCharlie Coyle: Tripping2 min
- P3 15:25COLJosh Manson: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against Coyle
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestMacKinnon – Drouin – Rantanen14:25
xG 0.81–0.32 (72%)attempts 13–12goals 0–1
- Cogliano – Johansen – Kiviranta9:06
xG 0.44–0.49 (47%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- MacDermid – Olofsson – Polin6:19
xG 0.10–0.18 (36%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Wood – Colton – O'Connor10:55
xG 0.54–0.72 (43%)attempts 21–12goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestManson – Girard14:52
xG 0.75–0.48 (61%)attempts 22–14goals 0–0
- Toews – Makar17:16
xG 0.42–0.58 (42%)attempts 14–17goals 0–2
- Johnson – Malinski12:21
xG 0.32–0.66 (32%)attempts 10–15goals 0–1
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestvan Riemsdyk – Zacha – DeBrusk8:07
xG 0.61–0.16 (79%)attempts 9–11goals 1–0
- Marchand – Coyle – DeBrusk2:13
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Marchand – Coyle – Pastrnak10:26
xG 0.55–0.61 (47%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
- Heinen – Steen – Boqvist8:35
xG 0.09–0.35 (21%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Shattenkirk – Lohrei14:58
xG 0.63–0.78 (45%)attempts 14–17goals 0–0
- Lindholm – McAvoy14:09
xG 0.51–0.83 (38%)attempts 18–13goals 2–1
- Grzelcyk – Wotherspoon14:38
xG 0.40–0.77 (34%)attempts 11–24goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).