Thu, Jan 18, 2024·Capital One Arena, Washington
St. Louis Blues 2, Washington Capitals 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 18 | 07 | 15 | 220 |
| WSH | 18 | 210 | 28 | 526 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:24WSHT.J. OshiePPAssists: Max Pacioretty · Snap, 0.22 xG0–1
- P1 17:54STLNathan WalkerAssists: Nick Leddy, Colton Parayko · Tip-in, 0.06 xG1–1
- P2 3:32WSHNicolas Aube-KubelAssists: Hendrix Lapierre, John Carlson · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–2
- P2 10:27WSHT.J. OshiePPGWGAssists: Dylan Strome, Max Pacioretty · Snap, 0.21 xG1–3
- P3 0:34WSHDylan StromeAssists: Alex Ovechkin, John Carlson · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–4
- P3 4:01STLNathan WalkerAssists: Justin Faulk, Nikita Alexandrov · Tip-in, 0.09 xG2–4
- P3 19:40WSHT.J. OshieENAssists: Martin Fehérváry · Snap, 0.67 xG2–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 9:47STLOskar Sundqvist: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 13:06WSHHendrix Lapierre: High sticking double minor4 min
- P1 19:49STLNikita Alexandrov: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 6:04WSHTom Wilson: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:40STLTorey Krug: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 10:47WSHNicolas Aube-Kubel: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:34WSHAlexander Alexeyev: High sticking2 min
- P2 18:30STLJake Neighbours: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Strome won the faceoff against Thomas
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSchenn – Hayes – Neighbours3:50
xG 0.12–0.01 (90%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Saad – Sundqvist – Gaudette5:54
xG 0.08–0.07 (53%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Buchnevich – Kyrou – Thomas5:33
xG 0.18–0.19 (50%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Schenn – Hayes – Kyrou5:53
xG 0.11–0.11 (49%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKrug – Kessel11:24
xG 0.28–0.16 (64%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Faulk – Perunovich11:53
xG 0.38–0.52 (42%)attempts 8–13goals 1–1
- Leddy – Parayko13:14
xG 0.32–0.47 (41%)attempts 12–14goals 1–1
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestDowd – Aube-Kubel – Lapierre4:13
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Mantha – McMichael – Protas7:17
xG 0.24–0.12 (67%)attempts 8–4goals 0–1
- Oshie – Pacioretty – Strome8:40
xG 0.41–0.31 (57%)attempts 7–9goals 0–1
- Ovechkin – Kuznetsov – Wilson8:43
xG 0.01–0.34 (3%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarlson – Fehérváry11:43
xG 0.35–0.26 (57%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- van Riemsdyk – Bear8:48
xG 0.18–0.16 (52%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Jensen – Alexeyev11:44
xG 0.24–0.24 (51%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).