Thu, Jan 18, 2024·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
New York Rangers 1, Vegas Golden Knights 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 011 | 08 | 111 | 130 |
| VGK | 210 | 27 | 19 | 526 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:35VGKJonathan MarchessaultAssists: Nicolas Roy, Nicolas Hague · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 14:48VGKIvan BarbashevGWGAssists: Nicolas Roy, Jonathan Marchessault · Deflected, 0.08 xG0–2
- P2 17:59VGKIvan BarbashevPPAssists: Mark Stone, Chandler Stephenson · Snap, 0.31 xG0–3
- P2 18:24VGKKeegan KolesarAssists: Kaedan Korczak, Brett Howden · Tip-in, 0.10 xG0–4
- P3 0:40NYRMika ZibanejadPPAssists: Chris Kreider, Artemi Panarin · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–4
- P3 18:32VGKBrett HowdenENAssists: Mark Stone · Wrist, 0.78 xG1–5
Penalties (6)
- P1 8:19VGKByron Froese: Hooking2 min
- P1 16:05NYRAdam Fox: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:31NYRBraden Schneider: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 19:30VGKByron Froese: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P3 11:16NYRAdam Fox: Hooking2 min
- P3 17:21VGKJonathan Marchessault: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Roy won the faceoff against Zibanejad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestKreider – Zibanejad – Kakko10:34
xG 0.48–0.26 (65%)attempts 17–10goals 0–1
- Wheeler – Brodzinski – Cuylle8:46
xG 0.19–0.08 (70%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Bonino – Goodrow – Vesey6:12
xG 0.05–0.01 (84%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Trocheck – Panarin – Lafrenière13:40
xG 0.66–0.75 (47%)attempts 22–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestFox – Lindgren16:08
xG 0.84–0.30 (74%)attempts 30–10goals 0–0
- Gustafsson – Schneider11:19
xG 0.25–0.27 (48%)attempts 11–10goals 0–1
- Trouba – Miller13:56
xG 0.27–0.65 (30%)attempts 11–13goals 0–2
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestHowden – Rempal – Brisson6:25
xG 0.41–0.15 (74%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Stone – Stephenson – Howden2:05
xG 0.00–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Marchessault – Barbashev – Roy10:28
xG 0.36–0.40 (48%)attempts 10–9goals 2–0
- Froese – Kolesar – Howden2:27
xG 0.12–0.16 (43%)attempts 2–3goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMartinez – Pietrangelo16:43
xG 0.75–0.69 (52%)attempts 10–25goals 0–0
- McNabb – Korczak12:05
xG 0.26–0.26 (50%)attempts 12–14goals 2–0
- Hague – Whitecloud15:51
xG 0.21–0.44 (32%)attempts 11–16goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).