Fri, Jan 19, 2024·Amerant Bank Arena, Sunrise
Minnesota Wild 6, Florida Panthers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 15 | 310 | 211 | 626 |
| FLA | 09 | 27 | 219 | 435 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:49MINKirill KaprizovPPAssists: Matt Boldy, Brock Faber · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–0
- P2 0:35FLAAaron EkbladAssists: Matthew Tkachuk, Carter Verhaeghe · Snap, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 3:22MINRyan HartmanPPAssists: Alex Goligoski, Patrick Maroon · Slap, 0.05 xG2–1
- P2 7:36MINBrock FaberPPAssists: Matt Boldy, Joel Eriksson Ek · Tip-in, 0.01 xG3–1
- P2 10:32MINMats ZuccarelloPPAssists: Joel Eriksson Ek, Kirill Kaprizov · Wrist, 0.00 xG4–1
- P2 18:27FLAEetu LuostarinenAssists: Anton Lundell, Aaron Ekblad · Backhand, 0.18 xG4–2
- P3 0:41MINKirill KaprizovPPGWGAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Brock Faber · Slap, 0.04 xG5–2
- P3 8:05FLAAnton LundellAssists: Aaron Ekblad, Sam Reinhart · Backhand, 0.09 xG5–3
- P3 8:23FLAGustav ForslingAssists: Aaron Ekblad · Slap, 0.04 xG5–4
- P3 19:48MINRyan HartmanENUnassisted · Slap, 0.41 xG6–4
Penalties (18)
- P1 2:15FLAWilliam Lockwood: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P1 2:15FLAWilliam Lockwood: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 2:15MINZach Bogosian: Roughing2 min
- P1 5:58FLAWilliam Lockwood: Fighting5 min
- P1 5:58MINBrandon Duhaime: Fighting5 min
- P1 7:09MINMarcus Foligno: Boarding2 min
- P1 9:14FLAJonah Gadjovich: Fighting5 min
- P1 9:14MINMarcus Foligno: Fighting5 min
- P1 10:54MINBrock Faber: Interference2 min
- P1 13:38FLAKevin Stenlund: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:51FLASergei Bobrovsky: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 6:55FLANiko Mikkola: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 9:11FLAEetu Luostarinen: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 13:10MINMats Zuccarello: Unsportsmanlike conduct bench2 min
- P2 13:10FLARyan Lomberg: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 13:10MINBrandon Duhaime: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 15:04MINZach Bogosian: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 18:48FLAAaron Ekblad: Elbowing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lundell won the faceoff against Rossi
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestFoligno – Eriksson Ek – Boldy6:23
xG 0.30–0.08 (80%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Maroon – Hartman – Duhaime2:11
xG 0.01–0.08 (12%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Maroon – Johansson – Hartman6:19
xG 0.06–0.33 (16%)attempts 4–10goals 0–1
- Zuccarello – Kaprizov – Rossi8:10
xG 0.28–0.63 (30%)attempts 8–13goals 0–3
Defence pairs
- Mermis – Middleton12:10
xG 0.40–0.41 (49%)attempts 11–14goals 0–0
- Goligoski – Bogosian8:22
xG 0.11–0.23 (33%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
- Bogosian – Middleton3:31
xG 0.00–0.15 (0%)attempts 0–10goals 0–1
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestReinhart – Luostarinen – Lundell9:52
xG 0.95–0.29 (77%)attempts 24–8goals 2–0
- Verhaeghe – Bennett – Tkachuk12:07
xG 0.61–0.10 (86%)attempts 21–6goals 2–0
- Rodrigues – Stenlund – Lorentz2:40
xG 0.21–0.07 (75%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Rodrigues – Stenlund – Lomberg4:14
xG 0.12–0.03 (78%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkblad – Forsling12:10
xG 1.45–0.08 (95%)attempts 31–7goals 4–0
- Montour – Mikkola5:11
xG 0.13–0.02 (84%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Ekman-Larsson – Montour9:51
xG 0.30–0.22 (58%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).