Sat, Jan 20, 2024·TD Garden, Boston
Montréal Canadiens 4, Boston Bruins 9
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 28 | 26 | 07 | 421 |
| BOS | 312 | 214 | 410 | 936 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:18MTLCole CaufieldPPAssists: Sean Monahan, Juraj Slafkovský · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–0
- P1 12:47BOSBrandon CarloAssists: Trent Frederic, Jakub Lauko · Tip-in, 0.06 xG1–1
- P1 15:00MTLJoel ArmiaAssists: Joshua Roy, Sean Monahan · Tip-in, 0.10 xG2–1
- P1 18:10BOSJake DeBruskAssists: James van Riemsdyk · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–2
- P1 19:05BOSDanton HeinenAssists: Matt Grzelcyk, Charlie McAvoy · Deflected, 0.10 xG2–3
- P2 6:16MTLMike MathesonPPAssists: Sean Monahan, Nick Suzuki · Snap, 0.12 xG3–3
- P2 10:46BOSDanton HeinenAssists: Jesper Boqvist, Hampus Lindholm · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–4
- P2 11:35BOSCharlie CoyleGWGAssists: David Pastrnak, Brad Marchand · Tip-in, 0.09 xG3–5
- P2 13:19MTLBrendan GallagherAssists: Rafael Harvey-Pinard · Wrist, 0.09 xG4–5
- P3 1:26BOSDavid PastrnakUnassisted · Wrist, 0.21 xG4–6
- P3 4:32BOSBrad MarchandAssists: Charlie Coyle · Wrist, 0.21 xG4–7
- P3 9:13BOSPavel ZachaAssists: Jake DeBrusk, James van Riemsdyk · Wrist, 0.23 xG4–8
- P3 10:40BOSDanton HeinenPPAssists: Morgan Geekie, Kevin Shattenkirk · Wrist, 0.29 xG4–9
Penalties (8)
- P1 4:06MTLMike Matheson: Cross checking2 min
- P1 8:22BOSKevin Shattenkirk: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 5:10BOSCharlie Coyle: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 7:55MTLJosh Anderson: Roughing2 min
- P2 7:55MTLJosh Anderson: Fighting5 min
- P2 7:55BOSTrent Frederic: Fighting5 min
- P2 18:56BOSMatt Grzelcyk: Slashing2 min
- P3 10:10MTLNick Suzuki: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Evans won the faceoff against Zacha
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestArmia – Monahan – Roy9:10
xG 0.43–0.32 (57%)attempts 9–7goals 1–1
- Suzuki – Caufield – Slafkovský13:40
xG 0.71–0.86 (45%)attempts 13–12goals 0–2
- Stephens – Pezzetta – Harvey-Pinard6:26
xG 0.03–0.35 (9%)attempts 4–6goals 0–1
- Gallagher – Anderson – Evans10:37
xG 0.04–0.65 (6%)attempts 7–11goals 0–3
Defence pairs
- Matheson – Barron2:10
xG 0.11–0.06 (65%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Harris – Guhle2:17
xG 0.01–0.14 (4%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Savard – Matheson11:53
xG 0.45–0.87 (34%)attempts 6–15goals 0–3
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestFrederic – Geekie – Lauko7:21
xG 0.18–0.03 (88%)attempts 5–7goals 1–0
- van Riemsdyk – Zacha – DeBrusk6:30
xG 0.46–0.34 (57%)attempts 5–6goals 2–1
- Marchand – Coyle – Pastrnak10:20
xG 0.52–0.73 (41%)attempts 9–14goals 2–0
- Heinen – Boqvist – Poitras7:39
xG 0.05–0.36 (12%)attempts 3–8goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestLindholm – Carlo14:10
xG 1.13–0.46 (71%)attempts 10–12goals 3–0
- Lindholm – McAvoy2:53
xG 0.49–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 1–0
- Grzelcyk – McAvoy16:53
xG 0.58–0.32 (64%)attempts 14–11goals 3–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).