Sat, Jan 20, 2024·Prudential Center, Newark
Dallas Stars 6, New Jersey Devils 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 114 | 316 | 26 | 636 |
| NJD | 014 | 08 | 29 | 231 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:42DALJoe PavelskiPPAssists: Jamie Benn, Jason Robertson · Snap, 0.29 xG1–0
- P2 7:58DALRoope HintzSHAssists: Ryan Suter · Backhand, 0.14 xG2–0
- P2 16:31DALMatt DucheneGWGAssists: Tyler Seguin, Thomas Harley · Wrist, 0.22 xG3–0
- P2 19:42DALRoope HintzAssists: Wyatt Johnston, Ryan Suter · Wrist, 0.17 xG4–0
- P3 2:10DALCraig SmithAssists: Ty Dellandrea, Thomas Harley · Wrist, 0.03 xG5–0
- P3 7:18DALWyatt JohnstonAssists: Jason Robertson, Esa Lindell · Wrist, 0.20 xG6–0
- P3 13:15NJDJesper BrattAssists: Timo Meier, Nico Hischier · Wrist, 0.14 xG6–1
- P3 19:00NJDTyler ToffoliUnassisted · Snap, 0.08 xG6–2
Penalties (10)
- P1 1:20DALRyan Suter: Tripping2 min
- P1 5:26NJDCal Foote: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 2:28NJDCal Foote: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:01DALJason Robertson: High sticking2 min
- P2 8:37NJDSimon Nemec: Holding2 min
- P3 9:32NJDNathan Bastian: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:57DALRyan Suter: Interference2 min
- P3 14:53NJDTyler Toffoli: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 19:17NJDCal Foote: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:17NJDCal Foote: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hischier won the faceoff against Pavelski
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestHintz – Robertson – Johnston11:18
xG 1.35–0.09 (94%)attempts 16–10goals 2–0
- Pavelski – Benn – Steel10:13
xG 0.89–0.40 (69%)attempts 15–15goals 0–0
- Smith – Faksa – Dellandrea9:05
xG 0.21–0.23 (48%)attempts 10–8goals 1–1
- Dadonov – Duchene – Seguin9:07
xG 0.33–0.88 (27%)attempts 9–13goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestHakanpää – Lindell13:54
xG 1.37–0.54 (72%)attempts 19–20goals 2–1
- Hanley – Harley12:19
xG 0.71–0.23 (76%)attempts 15–12goals 0–0
- Suter – Harley2:20
xG 0.17–0.02 (90%)attempts 2–2goals 1–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestHaula – Lazar – Bastian7:39
xG 0.70–0.01 (98%)attempts 13–4goals 0–0
- Tierney – Willman – Holtz7:34
xG 0.03–0.14 (19%)attempts 4–7goals 0–1
- Meier – McLeod – Mercer9:14
xG 0.30–0.42 (41%)attempts 9–6goals 0–1
- Toffoli – Bratt – Hischier7:53
xG 0.17–1.03 (14%)attempts 11–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMarino – Nemec12:13
xG 1.12–0.75 (60%)attempts 18–15goals 1–2
- Marino – Hughes3:00
xG 0.02–0.07 (21%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Miller – Hughes11:33
xG 0.33–0.86 (28%)attempts 15–13goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).