Sat, Jan 20, 2024·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Washington Capitals 0, St. Louis Blues 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 05 | 09 | 04 | 018 |
| STL | 112 | 16 | 111 | 329 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:37STLColton ParaykoSHGWGAssists: Robert Thomas · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P2 7:44STLBrayden SchennAssists: Justin Faulk, Pavel Buchnevich · Slap, 0.07 xG0–2
- P3 15:51STLJake NeighboursPPAssists: Robert Thomas, Jordan Kyrou · Tip-in, 0.14 xG0–3
Penalties (13)
- P1 2:15STLAdam Gaudette: High sticking2 min
- P1 8:00WSHNic Dowd: High sticking2 min
- P2 3:38STLAdam Gaudette: Slashing2 min
- P2 16:49STLPavel Buchnevich: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:30STLRobert Thomas: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 19:30WSHConnor McMichael: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 19:30STLMatthew Kessel: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 19:30WSHMartin Fehérváry: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 15:00WSHNic Dowd: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 18:25STLRobert Thomas: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 18:25WSHTom Wilson: Cross checking2 min
- P3 18:25STLRobert Thomas: Misconduct10 min
- P3 18:25WSHTom Wilson: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thomas won the faceoff against Strome
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestDowd – Aube-Kubel – Malenstyn2:50
xG 0.15–0.05 (77%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Oshie – Pacioretty – Strome5:48
xG 0.14–0.04 (77%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Dowd – Wilson7:42
xG 0.25–0.29 (46%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Dowd – McMichael – Protas2:28
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarlson – Fehérváry13:58
xG 0.50–0.25 (67%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
- Edmundson – Bear7:34
xG 0.28–0.24 (54%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Bear – Alexeyev4:47
xG 0.10–0.11 (49%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestBuchnevich – Kyrou – Thomas11:16
xG 0.70–0.32 (69%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Sundqvist – Gaudette – Alexandrov5:46
xG 0.19–0.07 (74%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Hayes – Walker – Toropchenko6:32
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Schenn – Saad – Neighbours10:37
xG 0.38–0.48 (44%)attempts 14–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLeddy – Parayko15:04
xG 0.54–0.20 (73%)attempts 16–5goals 0–0
- Faulk – Krug15:49
xG 0.68–0.40 (63%)attempts 18–14goals 0–0
- Scandella – Kessel13:38
xG 0.22–0.22 (50%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).