Sun, Jan 21, 2024·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Ottawa Senators 5, Philadelphia Flyers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 89% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 08 | 212 | 314 | 534 |
| PHI | 28 | 19 | 08 | 325 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:57PHIEgor ZamulaPPAssists: Joel Farabee, Cam York · Wrist, 0.38 xG0–1
- P1 16:40PHIEgor ZamulaAssists: Joel Farabee, Cam Atkinson · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–2
- P2 4:04OTTZack MacEwenUnassisted · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–2
- P2 10:50PHIJoel FarabeePPAssists: Egor Zamula, Travis Konecny · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–3
- P2 11:45OTTTim StützleAssists: Shane Pinto, Thomas Chabot · Wrist, 0.94 xG2–3
- P3 3:19OTTClaude GirouxAssists: Brady Tkachuk, Jacob Bernard-Docker · Backhand, 0.19 xG3–3
- P3 15:07OTTVladimir TarasenkoGWGAssists: Mathieu Joseph · Snap, 0.08 xG4–3
- P3 18:37OTTTim StützleENAssists: Jakob Chychrun · Wrist, 0.71 xG5–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 8:14PHINick Seeler: Interference2 min
- P1 11:21OTTJake Sanderson: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 17:16PHITravis Konecny: Interference2 min
- P1 18:57OTTJosh Norris: Interference2 min
- P2 4:36OTTJacob Bernard-Docker: High sticking2 min
- P2 10:32OTTJacob Bernard-Docker: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 10:10PHICam Atkinson: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Norris won the faceoff against Couturier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Norris – Tkachuk11:07
xG 0.44–0.00 (100%)attempts 12–1goals 1–0
- Chartier – MacEwen – Kelly6:35
xG 0.23–0.13 (64%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Batherson – Greig – Stützle11:10
xG 0.15–0.26 (36%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
- Tarasenko – Joseph – Pinto9:25
xG 0.20–0.47 (30%)attempts 10–12goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestChabot – Chychrun10:42
xG 0.47–0.08 (85%)attempts 17–5goals 1–0
- Bernard-Docker – Sanderson2:46
xG 0.46–0.11 (80%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
- Sanderson – Zub15:52
xG 0.53–0.45 (54%)attempts 15–12goals 1–1
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestCouturier – Konecny – Farabee2:52
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Atkinson – Frost – Farabee6:32
xG 0.22–0.19 (53%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
- Laughton – Hathaway – Cates5:23
xG 0.01–0.02 (24%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Couturier – Konecny – Foerster5:24
xG 0.04–0.06 (42%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSeeler – Ristolainen4:05
xG 0.20–0.08 (71%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Walker – Zamula3:21
xG 0.19–0.08 (70%)attempts 6–1goals 1–0
- York – Drysdale3:44
xG 0.07–0.02 (80%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 89% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).