Sun, Jan 21, 2024·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Minnesota Wild 5, Carolina Hurricanes 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 13 | 17 | 39 | 519 |
| CAR | 118 | 013 | 111 | 242 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:02CARMartin NecasAssists: Stefan Noesen, Jack Drury · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 17:43MINKirill KaprizovAssists: Alex Goligoski, Marco Rossi · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–1
- P2 6:18MINKirill KaprizovAssists: Matt Boldy, Joel Eriksson Ek · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–1
- P3 8:17CARMichael BuntingAssists: Seth Jarvis, Sebastian Aho · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–2
- P3 9:32MINJoel Eriksson EkGWGAssists: Jonas Brodin, Brock Faber · Snap, 0.52 xG3–2
- P3 17:59MINKirill KaprizovENAssists: Brock Faber · Slap, 0.37 xG4–2
- P3 19:04MINJake MiddletonENAssists: Zach Bogosian, Joel Eriksson Ek · Wrist, 0.48 xG5–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 14:17MINMarcus Foligno: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:47CARSeth Jarvis: Hooking2 min
- P2 2:56MINMarcus Johansson: Roughing removing opponents helmet2 min
- P2 4:08CARMichael Bunting: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:58MINRyan Hartman: Hooking2 min
- P3 14:18MINBrock Faber: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Eriksson Ek
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- Duhaime – Lucchini – Raska5:41
xG 0.02–0.16 (12%)attempts 1–6goals 0–1
- Maroon – Johansson – Hartman8:10
xG 0.17–0.48 (26%)attempts 7–14goals 0–1
- Foligno – Eriksson Ek – Boldy9:36
xG 0.15–0.66 (18%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
- Zuccarello – Kaprizov – Rossi13:47
xG 0.31–0.85 (27%)attempts 7–22goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Bogosian – Middleton2:23
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Goligoski – Bogosian10:45
xG 0.26–0.45 (36%)attempts 6–14goals 1–1
- Brodin – Faber17:04
xG 1.08–1.31 (45%)attempts 10–27goals 1–1
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestTeravainen – Bunting – Aho7:12
xG 0.64–0.19 (77%)attempts 13–4goals 0–0
- Staal – Martinook – Jarvis8:31
xG 0.54–0.26 (67%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
- Fast – Lemieux – Kotkaniemi5:38
xG 0.27–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Noesen – Necas – Drury9:11
xG 0.43–0.21 (67%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSkjei – Pesce13:24
xG 1.10–0.16 (88%)attempts 23–5goals 0–0
- Burns – Slavin14:08
xG 0.82–0.33 (72%)attempts 16–8goals 1–1
- Orlov – Chatfield14:11
xG 0.39–1.32 (23%)attempts 15–14goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).