Sun, Jan 21, 2024·UBS Arena, Elmont
Dallas Stars 2, New York Islanders 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 016 | 214 | 013 | 00 | 243 |
| NYI | 113 | 05 | 19 | 11 | 328 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:52NYIAlexander RomanovAssists: Mathew Barzal, Noah Dobson · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–1
- P2 11:35DALJason RobertsonAssists: Joe Pavelski, Radek Faksa · Snap, 0.21 xG1–1
- P2 15:08DALNils LundkvistAssists: Sam Steel, Joe Pavelski · Slap, 0.01 xG2–1
- P3 5:23NYIHudson FaschingAssists: Noah Dobson, Brock Nelson · Deflected, 0.12 xG2–2
- OT 0:41NYIBo HorvatGWGAssists: Mathew Barzal · Backhand, 0.23 xG2–3
Penalties (3)
- P1 5:17NYIScott Mayfield: Holding2 min
- P1 14:05NYIAnders Lee: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:49NYIBrock Nelson: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Horvat won the faceoff against Seguin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestHintz – Robertson – Johnston12:11
xG 0.90–0.19 (82%)attempts 24–5goals 0–0
- Dadonov – Faksa – Robertson3:58
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Dadonov – Smith – Faksa3:22
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Pavelski – Benn – Steel11:25
xG 0.55–0.68 (44%)attempts 15–15goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestHanley – Harley12:16
xG 0.86–0.32 (73%)attempts 19–9goals 0–0
- Suter – Lundkvist13:35
xG 0.85–0.49 (63%)attempts 23–8goals 1–0
- Suter – Harley2:37
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestLee – Horvat – Barzal15:25
xG 1.21–0.41 (75%)attempts 24–13goals 1–0
- Clutterbuck – Martin – MacLean6:06
xG 0.08–0.34 (18%)attempts 2–9goals 0–0
- Palmieri – Nelson – Fasching11:34
xG 0.41–0.96 (30%)attempts 8–15goals 1–1
- Pageau – Gauthier – Holmstrom9:56
xG 0.13–0.81 (14%)attempts 2–22goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPelech – Aho13:59
xG 1.00–0.40 (71%)attempts 15–13goals 0–1
- Mayfield – Pelech4:28
xG 0.06–0.26 (18%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Dobson – Romanov19:13
xG 0.95–1.33 (42%)attempts 17–27goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).