Sun, Jan 21, 2024·Climate Pledge Arena, Seattle
Toronto Maple Leafs 3, Seattle Kraken 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 18 | 19 | 19 | 326 |
| SEA | 06 | 17 | 04 | 117 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:06TORAuston MatthewsAssists: Mitch Marner · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–0
- P2 2:51TORNick RobertsonGWGAssists: Max Domi, Tyler Bertuzzi · Snap, 0.21 xG2–0
- P2 14:03SEAJordan EberleAssists: Jared McCann, Tomas Tatar · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–1
- P3 19:39TORJake McCabeENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.31 xG3–1
Penalties (8)
- P1 2:14TORSimon Benoit: Roughing2 min
- P1 2:14TORConor Timmins: Cross checking2 min
- P1 2:14SEABrandon Tanev: Roughing2 min
- P1 9:12SEABrandon Tanev: Fighting5 min
- P1 9:12TORJake McCabe: Fighting5 min
- P1 16:59TORMax Domi: Cross checking2 min
- P2 0:42SEAJamie Oleksiak: Hooking2 min
- P2 3:56SEAJustin Schultz: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Matthews won the faceoff against Wennberg
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestTavares – Bertuzzi – Nylander10:11
xG 0.66–0.17 (79%)attempts 12–13goals 0–0
- Marner – Matthews – Knies13:50
xG 0.58–0.29 (66%)attempts 17–7goals 1–0
- Gregor – Kampf – Holmberg7:58
xG 0.36–0.14 (73%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Jarnkrok – Domi – Robertson6:09
xG 0.22–0.19 (53%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTimmins – Benoit8:51
xG 0.75–0.28 (72%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- McCabe – Benoit3:52
xG 0.01–0.01 (55%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- McCabe – Liljegren13:31
xG 0.54–0.56 (49%)attempts 10–14goals 1–0
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestEberle – Tatar – McCann10:35
xG 0.80–0.24 (77%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
- Schwartz – Bjorkstrand – Burakovsky2:02
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Schwartz – Bjorkstrand – Kartye5:35
xG 0.20–0.14 (58%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Schwartz – Burakovsky – Kartye5:42
xG 0.30–0.29 (51%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDumoulin – Larsson13:02
xG 0.67–0.10 (87%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Larsson – Evans2:15
xG 0.00–0.12 (0%)attempts 3–4goals 0–1
- Schultz – Evans11:55
xG 0.39–0.60 (39%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SEA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SEA is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SEA − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).