Mon, Jan 22, 2024·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Florida Panthers 4, Nashville Predators 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 014 | 114 | 310 | 438 |
| NSH | 04 | 112 | 011 | 127 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 11:18FLASam ReinhartPPAssists: Sam Bennett · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–0
- P2 12:16NSHJeremy LauzonAssists: Colton Sissons · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–1
- P3 1:11FLACarter VerhaegheGWGAssists: Sam Bennett · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–1
- P3 18:21FLABrandon MontourENAssists: Matthew Tkachuk, Sam Bennett · Wrist, 0.33 xG3–1
- P3 19:40FLAMatthew TkachukENAssists: Carter Verhaeghe · Wrist, 0.67 xG4–1
Penalties (11)
- P1 10:52FLAEetu Luostarinen: Slashing2 min
- P1 0:00NSHYakov Trenin: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:15NSHYakov Trenin: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 18:10NSHYakov Trenin: Boarding2 min
- P2 18:10NSHYakov Trenin: Fighting5 min
- P2 18:10FLAJonah Gadjovich: Fighting5 min
- P2 18:39FLACarter Verhaeghe: Cross checking2 min
- P3 4:12NSHLuke Evangelista: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 5:58FLAAaron Ekblad: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:20FLAOliver Ekman-Larsson: Tripping2 min
- P3 14:50FLAAaron Ekblad: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bennett won the faceoff against O'Reilly
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestVerhaeghe – Bennett – Tkachuk10:21
xG 0.74–0.31 (70%)attempts 14–7goals 1–0
- Reinhart – Luostarinen – Lundell9:38
xG 0.43–0.17 (72%)attempts 12–6goals 0–1
- Rodrigues – Stenlund – Samoskevich7:57
xG 0.40–0.18 (69%)attempts 13–3goals 0–0
- Lorentz – Lomberg – Gadjovich7:21
xG 0.00–0.13 (3%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMontour – Mikkola13:39
xG 0.74–0.44 (63%)attempts 17–10goals 0–0
- Kulikov – Mahura9:19
xG 0.40–0.10 (79%)attempts 10–7goals 0–1
- Ekman-Larsson – Ekblad13:26
xG 0.48–0.59 (45%)attempts 14–10goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestMcCarron – Tomasino – Smith5:58
xG 0.28–0.06 (81%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Novak – Sherwood – Evangelista7:52
xG 0.03–0.02 (58%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Nyquist – O'Reilly – Forsberg10:23
xG 0.50–0.73 (41%)attempts 10–14goals 0–0
- Sissons – Gurianov – Trenin6:52
xG 0.03–0.32 (10%)attempts 3–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcDonagh – Josi2:51
xG 0.31–0.25 (56%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Lauzon – Carrier11:41
xG 0.53–0.47 (53%)attempts 13–11goals 1–1
- Josi – Fabbro9:26
xG 0.15–0.12 (55%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).