Tue, Jan 23, 2024·UBS Arena, Elmont
Vegas Golden Knights 3, New York Islanders 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 17 | 29 | 011 | 327 |
| NYI | 08 | 118 | 116 | 242 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:52VGKIvan BarbashevAssists: Alex Pietrangelo · Tip-in, 0.17 xG1–0
- P2 3:35NYIBrock NelsonAssists: Alexander Romanov, Noah Dobson · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 7:18VGKSheldon RempalPPAssists: Nicolas Roy, Alex Pietrangelo · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–1
- P2 9:07VGKNicolas RoyGWGAssists: Jonathan Marchessault, Ivan Barbashev · Wrist, 0.23 xG3–1
- P3 9:26NYIJean-Gabriel PageauSHAssists: Simon Holmstrom, Adam Pelech · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–2
Penalties (6)
- P2 6:14NYIScott Mayfield: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 0:28VGKMark Stone: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:49VGKJonathan Marchessault: Holding2 min
- P3 8:54NYIMatt Martin: Holding2 min
- P3 13:21VGKIvan Barbashev: Holding2 min
- P3 14:49NYIMathew Barzal: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Horvat won the faceoff against Stephenson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestMarchessault – Barbashev – Roy11:01
xG 0.84–0.72 (54%)attempts 13–14goals 2–0
- Froese – Kolesar – Rondbjerg8:56
xG 0.04–0.15 (22%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Howden – Rempal – Cotter6:20
xG 0.02–0.29 (6%)attempts 2–12goals 0–0
- Stone – Stephenson – Dorofeyev10:51
xG 0.17–0.70 (19%)attempts 6–20goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHague – Whitecloud12:51
xG 0.81–0.38 (68%)attempts 13–13goals 1–0
- Martinez – Pietrangelo15:54
xG 0.53–0.32 (62%)attempts 12–21goals 1–0
- McNabb – Korczak13:58
xG 0.03–0.80 (4%)attempts 5–16goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestLee – Horvat – Barzal13:32
xG 0.80–0.19 (81%)attempts 22–8goals 0–0
- Clutterbuck – Martin – MacLean6:09
xG 0.36–0.05 (87%)attempts 11–2goals 0–0
- Pageau – Gauthier – Holmstrom6:33
xG 0.13–0.28 (31%)attempts 4–7goals 0–1
- Palmieri – Nelson – Fasching9:24
xG 0.38–0.54 (41%)attempts 11–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Pelech – Aho10:33
xG 0.22–0.24 (47%)attempts 10–4goals 0–1
- Reilly – Mayfield8:46
xG 0.17–0.21 (44%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
- Dobson – Romanov15:03
xG 0.57–0.63 (47%)attempts 21–10goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).