Tue, Jan 23, 2024·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Washington Capitals 3, Minnesota Wild 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 09 | 112 | 212 | 333 |
| MIN | 28 | 114 | 28 | 530 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:37MINBrock FaberAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Marco Rossi · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–1
- P1 4:42MINMarcus FolignoAssists: Matt Boldy, Joel Eriksson Ek · Wrist, 0.22 xG0–2
- P2 6:28MINMarcus JohanssonAssists: Zach Bogosian · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–3
- P2 10:00WSHAnthony ManthaAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov, Martin Fehérváry · Tip-in, 0.07 xG1–3
- P3 1:37MINJoel Eriksson EkGWGAssists: Marcus Foligno, Jonas Brodin · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–4
- P3 13:39MINMarcus JohanssonAssists: Ryan Hartman, Patrick Maroon · Snap, 0.12 xG1–5
- P3 17:03WSHT.J. OshiePPAssists: John Carlson, Max Pacioretty · Tip-in, 0.09 xG2–5
- P3 18:24WSHAnthony ManthaAssists: Beck Malenstyn, Nic Dowd · Backhand, 0.16 xG3–5
Penalties (6)
- P1 5:41MINMarco Rossi: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:45WSHTrevor van Riemsdyk: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:58MINJonas Brodin: Interference2 min
- P2 15:02WSHNic Dowd: Hooking2 min
- P3 6:04MINRyan Hartman: Tripping2 min
- P3 15:06MINMarco Rossi: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dowd won the faceoff against Eriksson Ek
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestPacioretty – Strome – Protas3:53
xG 0.27–0.12 (69%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Kuznetsov – Wilson – Mantha8:52
xG 0.45–0.31 (60%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
- Ovechkin – McMichael – Protas3:38
xG 0.08–0.25 (24%)attempts 3–3goals 0–1
- Ovechkin – Oshie – McMichael3:27
xG 0.01–0.20 (6%)attempts 1–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestJensen – Edmundson11:54
xG 0.84–0.11 (88%)attempts 13–8goals 1–0
- van Riemsdyk – Sandin12:29
xG 0.31–0.89 (26%)attempts 11–16goals 0–2
- Carlson – Fehérváry15:46
xG 0.25–1.07 (19%)attempts 12–19goals 0–2
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestFoligno – Eriksson Ek – Boldy10:23
xG 0.86–0.26 (77%)attempts 16–6goals 2–0
- Zuccarello – Kaprizov – Rossi12:24
xG 0.33–0.20 (62%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
- Maroon – Johansson – Hartman10:38
xG 0.56–0.56 (50%)attempts 9–10goals 1–1
- Gaudreau – Duhaime – Lucchini4:57
xG 0.37–0.38 (49%)attempts 6–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMermis – Middleton13:08
xG 0.76–0.43 (64%)attempts 14–8goals 2–0
- Brodin – Faber16:16
xG 0.41–0.32 (56%)attempts 13–10goals 1–0
- Goligoski – Bogosian12:08
xG 0.80–0.78 (51%)attempts 12–15goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).