Tue, Jan 23, 2024·Honda Center, Anaheim
Buffalo Sabres 2, Anaheim Ducks 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 09 | 06 | 215 | 230 |
| ANA | 18 | 219 | 19 | 436 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:51ANAJakob SilfverbergAssists: Radko Gudas, Cam Fowler · Tip-in, 0.06 xG0–1
- P2 3:37ANASam CarrickPPAssists: Olen Zellweger, Troy Terry · Bat, 0.13 xG0–2
- P2 4:30ANAJakob SilfverbergGWGAssists: Mason McTavish · Wrist, 0.18 xG0–3
- P3 14:41BUFJordan GreenwayPPAssists: Rasmus Dahlin, Dylan Cozens · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–3
- P3 17:04BUFKyle OkposoAssists: Tage Thompson, Jordan Greenway · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–3
- P3 18:51ANAAdam HenriqueENAssists: Frank Vatrano, Cam Fowler · Wrist, 0.63 xG2–4
Penalties (14)
- P1 16:33ANACam Fowler: Holding2 min
- P2 1:53BUFHenri Jokiharju: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 14:06BUFMattias Samuelsson: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:13ANAMason McTavish: Throwing equipment2 min
- P3 1:38BUFHenri Jokiharju: Slashing2 min
- P3 14:02ANARadko Gudas: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 19:20BUFPeyton Krebs: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 19:20ANAMason McTavish: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:20BUFPeyton Krebs: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:20BUFKyle Okposo: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:20ANAMason McTavish: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:20BUFPeyton Krebs: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:20ANAAdam Henrique: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:20ANASam Carrick: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McTavish won the faceoff against Thompson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestOkposo – Girgensons – Krebs9:37
xG 0.54–0.15 (78%)attempts 20–4goals 0–0
- Mittelstadt – Peterka – Benson3:55
xG 0.34–0.25 (58%)attempts 2–6goals 0–1
- Cozens – Peterka – Benson2:36
xG 0.22–0.15 (60%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Greenway – Mittelstadt – Quinn2:20
xG 0.02–0.12 (12%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSamuelsson – Dahlin12:28
xG 0.94–0.53 (64%)attempts 17–9goals 0–0
- Jokiharju – Samuelsson2:06
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Dahlin – Power5:28
xG 0.37–0.53 (41%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestHenrique – Terry – Carlsson11:35
xG 1.41–0.21 (87%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Silfverberg – Lundeström – McTavish11:33
xG 0.68–0.30 (69%)attempts 9–9goals 2–0
- Carrick – McGinn – Groulx6:30
xG 0.25–0.29 (47%)attempts 5–12goals 0–0
- Strome – Vatrano – Leason7:36
xG 0.33–0.67 (33%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFowler – LaCombe19:50
xG 1.53–0.76 (67%)attempts 21–21goals 0–0
- Gudas – Vaakanainen12:01
xG 0.64–0.21 (75%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Lyubushkin – Zellweger10:33
xG 0.20–0.74 (21%)attempts 7–15goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).