Wed, Jan 24, 2024·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Winnipeg Jets 0, Toronto Maple Leafs 1 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 016 | 05 | 07 | 04 | 032 |
| TOR | 04 | 011 | 013 | 12 | 130 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- OT 4:13TORAuston MatthewsGWGAssists: Morgan Rielly, Nick Robertson · Tip-in, 0.17 xG0–1
Penalties (7)
- P2 1:42WPGDominic Toninato: Interference2 min
- P2 4:39WPGBrenden Dillon: High sticking2 min
- P2 14:48WPGDominic Toninato: Holding2 min
- P3 4:27WPGBrenden Dillon: Illegal check to head2 min
- P3 14:58WPGDylan DeMelo: Tripping2 min
- P3 16:20TORWilliam Nylander: Boarding2 min
- P3 19:24TORCalle Jarnkrok: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tavares won the faceoff against Lowry
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestNamestnikov – Ehlers – Connor13:15
xG 1.07–0.33 (77%)attempts 21–11goals 0–0
- Jonsson-Fjallby – Barron – Kupari5:16
xG 0.21–0.07 (76%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Niederreiter – Lowry – Appleton10:37
xG 0.20–0.27 (43%)attempts 14–5goals 0–0
- Toninato – Iafallo – Perfetti9:16
xG 0.11–0.21 (35%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDeMelo – Morrissey7:05
xG 0.82–0.21 (79%)attempts 17–7goals 0–0
- Schmidt – Samberg6:24
xG 0.40–0.03 (92%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Dillon – Schmidt4:00
xG 0.28–0.05 (86%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestJarnkrok – Domi – Robertson6:21
xG 0.21–0.05 (80%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Gregor – Kampf – McMann6:18
xG 0.16–0.13 (55%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Tavares – Nylander – Robertson3:19
xG 0.05–0.06 (44%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Tavares – Nylander – Holmberg8:40
xG 0.12–0.20 (38%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Rielly – Liljegren2:12
xG 0.05–0.02 (69%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Brodie – Benoit2:11
xG 0.03–0.01 (65%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Timmins – Benoit8:49
xG 0.16–0.23 (41%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).