Wed, Jan 24, 2024·Ball Arena, Denver
Washington Capitals 2, Colorado Avalanche 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 010 | 09 | 26 | 225 |
| COL | 19 | 312 | 210 | 631 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:23COLCale MakarSHAssists: Andrew Cogliano · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–1
- P2 2:39COLNathan MacKinnonPPAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Cale Makar · Snap, 0.08 xG0–2
- P2 7:00COLNathan MacKinnonPPGWGAssists: Cale Makar, Mikko Rantanen · Snap, 0.05 xG0–3
- P2 9:16COLNathan MacKinnonAssists: Mikko Rantanen · Backhand, 0.17 xG0–4
- P3 7:26WSHDylan StromeAssists: Max Pacioretty, Alex Ovechkin · Wrist, 0.32 xG1–4
- P3 10:20COLMikko RantanenAssists: Jonathan Drouin, Nathan MacKinnon · Bat, 0.30 xG1–5
- P3 16:14COLNathan MacKinnonAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Ross Colton · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–6
- P3 17:37WSHDylan StromeAssists: Tom Wilson, Ethan Bear · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–6
Penalties (9)
- P1 6:34COLMiles Wood: Slashing2 min
- P1 18:09COLJonathan Drouin: High sticking2 min
- P2 1:38WSHNicolas Aube-Kubel: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 6:22WSHEthan Bear: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 15:58COLKurtis MacDermid: Tripping2 min
- P3 2:55COLRoss Colton: High sticking2 min
- P3 14:08WSHT.J. Oshie: High sticking2 min
- P3 15:39WSHJoel Edmundson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 15:47COLRyan Johansen: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Colton won the faceoff against Kuznetsov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestKuznetsov – Wilson – Mantha9:11
xG 0.41–0.22 (65%)attempts 14–12goals 0–0
- Oshie – McMichael – Protas7:36
xG 0.54–0.38 (58%)attempts 13–2goals 0–0
- Dowd – Aube-Kubel – Malenstyn9:02
xG 0.17–0.22 (43%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Pacioretty – Strome10:34
xG 0.62–1.12 (36%)attempts 13–20goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestCarlson – Sandin14:15
xG 0.93–0.51 (65%)attempts 26–11goals 1–0
- Jensen – Edmundson4:41
xG 0.33–0.10 (77%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Bear – Fehérváry3:37
xG 0.02–0.00 (98%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestCogliano – Johansen – Lehkonen7:36
xG 0.52–0.03 (94%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- MacDermid – Olofsson – Kiviranta5:40
xG 0.32–0.02 (94%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- MacKinnon – Drouin – Rantanen14:36
xG 1.12–1.13 (50%)attempts 17–29goals 2–0
- Wood – Colton – O'Connor9:25
xG 0.41–0.85 (32%)attempts 13–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestToews – Makar12:40
xG 0.79–0.38 (67%)attempts 9–16goals 2–0
- Manson – Girard13:08
xG 0.77–0.65 (54%)attempts 13–20goals 0–0
- Byram – Malinski14:17
xG 0.46–1.01 (31%)attempts 15–15goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).