Wed, Jan 24, 2024·Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles
Buffalo Sabres 5, Los Angeles Kings 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 113 | 211 | 213 | 537 |
| LAK | 313 | 013 | 014 | 340 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:55LAKAnze KopitarAssists: Adrian Kempe, Matt Roy · Tip-in, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 5:01BUFJJ PeterkaAssists: Dylan Cozens · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–1
- P1 5:24LAKAdrian KempeAssists: Drew Doughty, Quinton Byfield · Snap, 0.07 xG1–2
- P1 9:44LAKPierre-Luc DuboisPPAssists: Alex Laferriere, Brandt Clarke · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–3
- P2 8:22BUFJJ PeterkaAssists: Jack Quinn · Backhand, 0.09 xG2–3
- P2 10:30BUFJack QuinnAssists: Casey Mittelstadt, Ryan Johnson · Snap, 0.11 xG3–3
- P3 5:49BUFAlex TuchGWGAssists: Eric Robinson, Peyton Krebs · Snap, 0.18 xG4–3
- P3 8:54BUFDylan CozensAssists: JJ Peterka, Jack Quinn · Wrist, 0.05 xG5–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 7:51BUFTage Thompson: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 11:19BUFJeff Skinner: Slashing2 min
- P1 14:02LAKTrevor Lewis: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:30LAKPierre-Luc Dubois: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:44LAKMatt Roy: Tripping2 min
- P3 15:08LAKAdrian Kempe: Slashing2 min
- P3 19:11BUFTage Thompson: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kopitar won the faceoff against Mittelstadt
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestCozens – Quinn – Peterka6:51
xG 0.44–0.09 (82%)attempts 9–5goals 3–0
- Tuch – Robinson – Krebs3:47
xG 0.23–0.18 (55%)attempts 7–4goals 1–0
- Tuch – Greenway – Mittelstadt7:56
xG 0.31–0.58 (35%)attempts 6–13goals 0–2
- Okposo – Skinner – Thompson9:32
xG 0.29–0.77 (27%)attempts 12–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestClifton – Johnson11:42
xG 0.50–0.38 (57%)attempts 12–16goals 1–0
- Jokiharju – Dahlin2:38
xG 0.19–0.16 (55%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Jokiharju – Power10:29
xG 0.50–0.53 (49%)attempts 13–9goals 2–0
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestKopitar – Kempe – Byfield11:58
xG 1.01–0.43 (70%)attempts 19–15goals 2–0
- Lewis – Grundstrom – Fagemo7:12
xG 0.23–0.07 (77%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Dubois – Anderson-Dolan – Laferriere6:58
xG 0.45–0.36 (56%)attempts 10–11goals 0–1
- Danault – Fiala – Moore11:07
xG 0.47–0.52 (48%)attempts 10–13goals 0–3
Defence pairs
- bestDoughty – Anderson14:34
xG 0.87–0.46 (66%)attempts 20–18goals 1–2
- Englund – Clarke9:59
xG 0.56–0.26 (68%)attempts 11–10goals 0–1
- Gavrikov – Roy15:29
xG 0.97–0.99 (50%)attempts 25–19goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).