Thu, Jan 25, 2024·PNC Arena, Raleigh
New Jersey Devils 2, Carolina Hurricanes 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 010 | 05 | 210 | 225 |
| CAR | 19 | 210 | 04 | 323 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:30CARSebastian AhoAssists: Teuvo Teravainen, Jaccob Slavin · Backhand, 0.12 xG0–1
- P2 2:54CARTeuvo TeravainenPPAssists: Michael Bunting · Slap, 0.05 xG0–2
- P2 3:19CARJordan StaalGWGAssists: Brady Skjei, Seth Jarvis · Tip-in, 0.10 xG0–3
- P3 5:25NJDJustin DowlingAssists: Alexander Holtz, Chris Tierney · Snap, 0.30 xG1–3
- P3 19:57NJDJesper BrattAssists: Luke Hughes · Snap, 0.13 xG2–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 8:44CARMartin Necas: Hooking2 min
- P2 2:51NJDOndrej Palat: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 3:19NJDAlexander Holtz: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P3 0:48NJDLuke Hughes: Hooking2 min
- P3 6:14CARBrady Skjei: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:35NJDSimon Nemec: Interference2 min
- P3 12:20CARTeuvo Teravainen: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hischier won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestHaula – Lazar – Bastian8:22
xG 1.60–0.05 (97%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Dowling – Tierney – Holtz5:21
xG 0.72–0.06 (92%)attempts 9–3goals 1–0
- Toffoli – Palat – Mercer9:18
xG 0.29–0.33 (46%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
- Meier – Bratt – Hischier11:22
xG 0.43–0.66 (40%)attempts 10–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHughes – Nemec7:27
xG 1.66–0.06 (97%)attempts 14–4goals 0–0
- Marino – Bahl6:58
xG 0.34–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Marino – Hughes7:25
xG 0.46–0.19 (71%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Martinook – Jarvis8:53
xG 0.66–0.19 (77%)attempts 13–4goals 1–0
- Teravainen – Bunting – Aho10:00
xG 0.33–0.05 (86%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
- Noesen – Necas – Drury10:39
xG 0.07–0.45 (14%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Fast – Lemieux – Kotkaniemi4:53
xG 0.10–0.51 (16%)attempts 5–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBurns – Slavin12:38
xG 0.86–0.34 (72%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
- Skjei – Pesce15:00
xG 0.41–0.37 (52%)attempts 16–8goals 1–0
- Slavin – Pesce2:43
xG 0.00–0.02 (11%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).