Thu, Jan 25, 2024·Centre Bell, Montreal
New York Islanders 3, Montréal Canadiens 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 012 | 118 | 216 | 346 |
| MTL | 313 | 07 | 16 | 426 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:06MTLNick SuzukiPPAssists: Juraj Slafkovský, Sean Monahan · Deflected, 0.13 xG0–1
- P1 11:36MTLCole CaufieldAssists: Nick Suzuki · Wrist, 0.30 xG0–2
- P1 12:19MTLSean MonahanPPAssists: Mike Matheson, Samuel Montembeault · Snap, 0.28 xG0–3
- P2 3:02NYIBo HorvatPPAssists: Mathew Barzal, Noah Dobson · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–3
- P3 14:52NYIMathew BarzalPPAssists: Noah Dobson, Kyle Palmieri · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–3
- P3 16:28NYIKyle PalmieriPPAssists: Noah Dobson, Bo Horvat · Wrist, 0.22 xG3–3
- P3 17:48MTLSean MonahanGWGAssists: Josh Anderson, Cole Caufield · Slap, 0.16 xG3–4
Penalties (11)
- P1 6:18NYIHudson Fasching: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P1 9:52MTLRafael Harvey-Pinard: Hooking2 min
- P1 10:19NYIKyle Palmieri: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 14:44MTLArber Xhekaj: High sticking2 min
- P1 18:49NYIJulien Gauthier: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:04MTLJayden Struble: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 2:46MTLJake Evans: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 10:01NYIKyle MacLean: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:40MTLArber Xhekaj: Interference2 min
- P3 6:12NYIAnders Lee: Interference2 min
- P3 11:52MTLBrendan Gallagher: Match penalty5 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Horvat won the faceoff against Suzuki
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestLee – Horvat – Barzal9:26
xG 0.99–0.21 (82%)attempts 16–8goals 0–0
- Clutterbuck – Fasching – MacLean2:26
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Palmieri – Nelson – Engvall7:32
xG 0.36–0.40 (47%)attempts 8–4goals 0–1
- Pageau – Gauthier – Holmstrom6:05
xG 0.25–0.43 (37%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDobson – Romanov11:32
xG 0.88–0.08 (92%)attempts 16–7goals 0–0
- Pelech – Aho9:55
xG 0.35–0.23 (60%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Mayfield – Bolduc7:12
xG 0.39–0.32 (55%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestArmia – Monahan – Slafkovský4:25
xG 0.24–0.04 (85%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Pezzetta – Harvey-Pinard – Condotta4:35
xG 0.22–0.17 (56%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Gallagher – Pearson – Evans7:56
xG 0.22–0.22 (49%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Anderson – Suzuki – Caufield6:27
xG 0.09–0.94 (9%)attempts 3–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStruble – Guhle2:11
xG 0.18–0.03 (85%)attempts 2–1goals 1–0
- Kovacevic – Xhekaj8:17
xG 0.44–0.54 (45%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Matheson – Guhle9:10
xG 0.09–0.48 (15%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).