Thu, Jan 25, 2024·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Boston Bruins 3, Ottawa Senators 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 13 | 19 | 08 | 13 | 323 |
| OTT | 09 | 113 | 113 | 02 | 237 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:36BOSDavid PastrnakPPAssists: Charlie McAvoy, Charlie Coyle · Slap, 0.07 xG1–0
- P2 8:19BOSTrent FredericAssists: Pavel Zacha, David Pastrnak · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–0
- P2 19:32OTTThomas ChabotPPAssists: Drake Batherson, Tim Stützle · Snap, 0.13 xG2–1
- P3 16:42OTTVladimir TarasenkoPPAssists: Thomas Chabot, Josh Norris · Snap, 0.03 xG2–2
- OT 1:48BOSBrad MarchandGWGAssists: Charlie Coyle · Snap, 0.09 xG3–2
Penalties (13)
- P1 6:21OTTMark Kastelic: Roughing2 min
- P1 6:21BOSDerek Forbort: Roughing2 min
- P1 10:36BOSDavid Pastrnak: Tripping2 min
- P1 12:52BOSCharlie Coyle: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:33OTTJacob Bernard-Docker: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 6:05BOSDavid Pastrnak: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:12BOSBrad Marchand: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 18:09BOSTrent Frederic: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 19:32BOSCharlie McAvoy: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:32BOSParker Wotherspoon: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:32OTTTim Stützle: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:32OTTDrake Batherson: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 15:21BOSParker Wotherspoon: Cross checking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Geekie won the faceoff against Pinto
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestZacha – DeBrusk – Boqvist4:04
xG 0.31–0.00 (99%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Frederic – Geekie – Boqvist4:13
xG 0.15–0.09 (64%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Frederic – Geekie4:21
xG 0.06–0.00 (98%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Heinen – Steen – Poitras6:00
xG 0.03–0.04 (43%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestForbort – Wotherspoon8:01
xG 0.22–0.02 (91%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Wotherspoon – McAvoy3:02
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 0–10goals 0–0
- Grzelcyk – McAvoy11:52
xG 0.30–0.33 (48%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestTarasenko – Joseph – Pinto2:56
xG 0.49–0.11 (82%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Giroux – Norris – Tkachuk5:54
xG 0.17–0.03 (83%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Giroux – Tkachuk – Stützle4:46
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 13–0goals 0–0
- Tarasenko – Joseph – Norris3:50
xG 0.01–0.00 (96%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSanderson – Zub17:24
xG 0.73–0.26 (74%)attempts 24–9goals 0–0
- Chabot – Chychrun16:32
xG 0.51–0.34 (60%)attempts 21–20goals 0–1
- Brannstrom – Bernard-Docker9:59
xG 0.00–0.43 (0%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).