Thu, Jan 25, 2024·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Anaheim Ducks 3, Dallas Stars 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 19 | 14 | 17 | 01 | 321 |
| DAL | 111 | 114 | 118 | 11 | 444 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:22DALMatt DucheneAssists: Mason Marchment, Tyler Seguin · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 15:10ANAUrho VaakanainenAssists: Isac Lundeström, Jakob Silfverberg · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–1
- P2 1:28ANATroy TerryAssists: Adam Henrique · Snap, 0.19 xG2–1
- P2 6:44DALCraig SmithUnassisted · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–2
- P3 0:12ANAJakob SilfverbergAssists: Isac Lundeström, Mason McTavish · Snap, 0.26 xG3–2
- P3 10:31DALMiro HeiskanenAssists: Thomas Harley, Evgenii Dadonov · Snap, 0.06 xG3–3
- OT 0:38DALThomas HarleyGWGAssists: Joe Pavelski · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–4
Penalties (4)
- P2 10:39ANARoss Johnston: Elbowing2 min
- P3 6:19ANARoss Johnston: Interference2 min
- P3 13:39ANARadko Gudas: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:39DALJamie Benn: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Seguin won the faceoff against McTavish
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestSilfverberg – Lundeström – McTavish10:46
xG 0.68–0.11 (86%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
- Henrique – Terry – Carlsson13:43
xG 0.55–0.44 (55%)attempts 8–15goals 1–0
- Strome – Vatrano – Leason11:16
xG 0.00–0.50 (1%)attempts 5–16goals 0–0
- Carrick – McGinn – Johnston6:31
xG 0.05–0.86 (5%)attempts 5–13goals 0–3
Defence pairs
- Gudas – Vaakanainen21:34
xG 0.63–0.83 (43%)attempts 13–26goals 2–1
- Hagg – Zellweger11:12
xG 0.39–0.65 (38%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
- Fowler – LaCombe16:19
xG 0.40–0.90 (31%)attempts 11–21goals 1–2
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestHintz – Robertson – Johnston11:47
xG 0.90–0.10 (90%)attempts 18–3goals 1–0
- Dadonov – Smith – Faksa8:41
xG 0.45–0.12 (79%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Pavelski – Benn – Steel10:22
xG 0.34–0.40 (46%)attempts 16–4goals 0–1
- Duchene – Seguin – Marchment11:02
xG 0.36–0.68 (34%)attempts 11–8goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Lundkvist12:33
xG 0.63–0.30 (67%)attempts 10–10goals 0–1
- Heiskanen – Harley17:28
xG 1.00–0.78 (56%)attempts 29–11goals 3–1
- Hakanpää – Lindell13:08
xG 0.28–0.20 (58%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).