Thu, Jan 25, 2024·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Nashville Predators 3, Minnesota Wild 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 011 | 04 | 314 | 329 |
| MIN | 06 | 111 | 17 | 224 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 12:44MINJoel Eriksson EkPPAssists: Kirill Kaprizov, Mats Zuccarello · Deflected, 0.12 xG0–1
- P3 1:44NSHAlexandre CarrierAssists: Yakov Trenin · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–1
- P3 2:19NSHFilip ForsbergAssists: Roman Josi, Ryan O'Reilly · Tip-in, 0.08 xG2–1
- P3 11:34NSHRoman JosiGWGAssists: Gustav Nyquist, Ryan O'Reilly · Wrist, 0.01 xG3–1
- P3 16:09MINMatt BoldyPPAssists: Brock Faber, Kirill Kaprizov · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–2
Penalties (13)
- P1 13:47MINZach Bogosian: Roughing2 min
- P2 5:49NSHCody Glass: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:07NSHAlexandre Carrier: Holding2 min
- P2 11:58NSHRyan McDonagh: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 14:44NSHMichael McCarron: Fighting5 min
- P2 14:44MINJake Middleton: Fighting5 min
- P2 15:37MINZach Bogosian: Instigator2 min
- P2 15:37NSHCole Smith: Elbowing2 min
- P2 15:37NSHCole Smith: Fighting5 min
- P2 15:37MINZach Bogosian: Fighting5 min
- P2 15:37MINZach Bogosian: Instigator misconduct10 min
- P2 18:22MINKirill Kaprizov: Hooking2 min
- P3 14:41NSHJeremy Lauzon: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sissons won the faceoff against Hartman
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestSissons – Gurianov – Trenin6:45
xG 0.29–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–1goals 0–0
- Nyquist – O'Reilly – Forsberg10:48
xG 0.51–0.25 (67%)attempts 15–10goals 2–0
- Novak – Glass – Evangelista7:25
xG 0.28–0.07 (80%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Forsberg – Novak – Gurianov2:14
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcDonagh – Schenn11:35
xG 0.75–0.06 (93%)attempts 15–4goals 0–0
- Lauzon – Carrier15:01
xG 0.79–0.35 (69%)attempts 17–14goals 1–0
- Josi – Fabbro13:34
xG 0.38–0.20 (66%)attempts 16–11goals 1–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestGaudreau – Duhaime – Lucchini3:32
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Maroon – Johansson – Hartman7:47
xG 0.02–0.04 (26%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Foligno – Eriksson Ek – Boldy10:35
xG 0.17–0.46 (27%)attempts 10–15goals 0–1
- Zuccarello – Kaprizov – Rossi12:00
xG 0.20–0.54 (27%)attempts 10–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Goligoski – Brodin2:00
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Goligoski – Middleton3:54
xG 0.01–0.05 (19%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Mermis – Middleton8:16
xG 0.11–0.14 (43%)attempts 7–4goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).