Thu, Jan 25, 2024·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Chicago Blackhawks 0, Edmonton Oilers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 91% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 07 | 012 | 08 | 027 |
| EDM | 07 | 112 | 215 | 334 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:37EDMConnor McDavidPPGWGAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Leon Draisaitl · Backhand, 0.07 xG0–1
- P3 6:34EDMZach HymanAssists: Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–2
- P3 18:45EDMConnor McDavidENAssists: Leon Draisaitl · Wrist, 0.73 xG0–3
Penalties (4)
- P1 8:17EDMConnor McDavid: Holding2 min
- P1 8:17CHIJason Dickinson: Holding2 min
- P1 19:48CHINick Foligno: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 18:24EDMVincent Desharnais: Penalty shot holding on breakaway0 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McLeod won the faceoff against Dickinson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestSanford – Katchouk – Johnson10:25
xG 0.60–0.35 (63%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Foligno – Raddysh – Kurashev12:24
xG 0.62–0.55 (53%)attempts 16–9goals 0–1
- Blackwell – Dickinson – Anderson11:55
xG 0.08–0.57 (13%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0
- Donato – Entwistle – Reichel12:13
xG 0.41–1.39 (23%)attempts 8–19goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJones – Vlasic17:19
xG 0.95–0.51 (65%)attempts 18–16goals 0–0
- Megna – Korchinski13:37
xG 0.55–0.41 (57%)attempts 13–9goals 0–1
- Jones – Korchinski2:39
xG 0.00–0.46 (0%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHyman – Draisaitl – McDavid15:36
xG 1.45–0.53 (73%)attempts 22–11goals 1–0
- Kane – Nugent-Hopkins – Foegele12:13
xG 1.17–0.58 (67%)attempts 18–12goals 0–0
- Gagner – Janmark – Ryan8:11
xG 0.20–0.03 (86%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Brown – McLeod – Holloway9:49
xG 0.08–0.19 (30%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkholm – Bouchard15:59
xG 1.57–1.00 (61%)attempts 19–13goals 1–0
- Kulak – Desharnais14:33
xG 0.91–0.47 (66%)attempts 17–11goals 0–0
- Ceci – Nurse18:50
xG 0.73–0.37 (67%)attempts 13–17goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 91% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).