Fri, Jan 26, 2024·Madison Square Garden, New York
Vegas Golden Knights 5, New York Rangers 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 16 | 28 | 26 | 520 |
| NYR | 115 | 07 | 116 | 238 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:02VGKSheldon RempalAssists: Paul Cotter, Nicolas Hague · Tip-in, 0.21 xG1–0
- P1 6:33NYRBlake WheelerAssists: Erik Gustafsson, Adam Fox · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–1
- P2 3:18VGKKeegan KolesarUnassisted · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–1
- P2 4:04VGKJonathan MarchessaultGWGAssists: Ivan Barbashev, Nicolas Roy · Tip-in, 0.08 xG3–1
- P3 2:11VGKJonathan MarchessaultAssists: Ivan Barbashev, Nicolas Roy · Wrist, 0.08 xG4–1
- P3 18:55NYRKaapo KakkoAssists: Jacob Trouba, Blake Wheeler · Wrist, 0.16 xG4–2
- P3 19:31VGKJonathan MarchessaultENAssists: Ivan Barbashev, Brayden McNabb · Wrist, 0.70 xG5–2
Penalties (4)
- P1 11:43VGKAlex Pietrangelo: Interference2 min
- P2 0:30NYRMika Zibanejad: Slashing2 min
- P2 7:59NYRJonny Brodzinski: Interference2 min
- P2 19:24VGKNicolas Roy: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stephenson won the faceoff against Zibanejad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestFroese – Rempal – Cotter2:01
xG 0.30–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Howden – Rempal – Cotter5:07
xG 0.29–0.25 (53%)attempts 4–7goals 1–0
- Howden – Rondbjerg – Rempal2:13
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 0–6goals 0–0
- Froese – Kolesar – Rondbjerg5:44
xG 0.04–0.15 (21%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- McNabb – Korczak14:43
xG 0.23–0.33 (41%)attempts 11–16goals 1–0
- Martinez – Pietrangelo13:00
xG 0.43–0.89 (33%)attempts 10–16goals 2–1
- Hague – Whitecloud13:54
xG 0.26–0.88 (23%)attempts 6–21goals 1–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestWheeler – Kreider – Trocheck2:17
xG 0.50–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–0goals 0–0
- Trocheck – Panarin – Lafrenière9:14
xG 0.52–0.14 (78%)attempts 11–7goals 0–1
- Wheeler – Kreider – Zibanejad9:06
xG 0.60–0.24 (72%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
- Zibanejad – Panarin – Lafrenière3:11
xG 0.10–0.11 (47%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGustafsson – Fox12:04
xG 0.71–0.10 (87%)attempts 15–5goals 1–0
- Gustafsson – Schneider3:47
xG 0.44–0.09 (83%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Trouba – Miller10:15
xG 0.65–0.30 (68%)attempts 16–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).