Fri, Jan 26, 2024·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Florida Panthers 3, Pittsburgh Penguins 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 18 | 110 | 011 | 02 | 2 | 331 |
| PIT | 110 | 015 | 111 | 01 | 1 | 237 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:51PITJake GuentzelPPAssists: Bryan Rust, Erik Karlsson · Tip-in, 0.15 xG0–1
- P1 4:52FLAEvan RodriguesPPAssists: Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Sam Bennett · Backhand, 0.21 xG1–1
- P2 11:49FLASam ReinhartPPAssists: Matthew Tkachuk, Oliver Ekman-Larsson · Snap, 0.12 xG2–1
- P3 19:18PITEvgeni MalkinAssists: Sidney Crosby, Bryan Rust · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. PIT Rickard Rakell stopped
- 2. FLA Anton Lundell stopped
- 3. PIT Sidney Crosby stopped
- 4. FLA Aleksander Barkov scored
- 5. PIT Jake Guentzel scored
- 6. FLA Sam Reinhart scored
Penalties (11)
- P1 0:22FLACarter Verhaeghe: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 3:40PITMarcus Pettersson: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 4:31FLARyan Lomberg: Interference2 min
- P2 9:48PITKris Letang: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:48PITKris Letang: Interference2 min
- P2 12:55FLAKevin Stenlund: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:33FLASam Bennett: Cross checking2 min
- P2 14:33FLASam Bennett: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 18:54FLAAnton Lundell: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:56FLASam Bennett: Interference2 min
- P3 14:35FLAAaron Ekblad: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bennett won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestVerhaeghe – Bennett – Tkachuk9:11
xG 0.72–0.19 (79%)attempts 16–8goals 0–0
- Reinhart – Luostarinen – Lundell8:58
xG 0.32–0.06 (85%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Stenlund – Lomberg – Gadjovich4:59
xG 0.10–0.14 (43%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Barkov – Rodrigues – Samoskevich7:06
xG 0.05–0.16 (24%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkman-Larsson – Kulikov8:05
xG 0.67–0.16 (81%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Montour – Mikkola13:25
xG 0.50–0.33 (60%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
- Ekblad – Forsling15:46
xG 0.11–0.40 (21%)attempts 14–17goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- Crosby – Rust – Guentzel10:31
xG 0.35–0.38 (48%)attempts 11–14goals 0–0
- Eller – Rakell – Puustinen5:11
xG 0.06–0.14 (32%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Malkin – White – O'Connor5:05
xG 0.05–0.17 (24%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Carter – Harkins – Acciari5:41
xG 0.03–0.43 (7%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKarlsson – Graves11:56
xG 0.46–0.37 (55%)attempts 16–12goals 0–0
- Ruhwedel – Joseph6:09
xG 0.03–0.14 (20%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Letang – Pettersson16:45
xG 0.18–0.78 (18%)attempts 13–25goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).