Fri, Jan 26, 2024·Ball Arena, Denver
Los Angeles Kings 1, Colorado Avalanche 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 07 | 110 | 010 | 127 |
| COL | 312 | 111 | 18 | 531 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:44COLLogan O'ConnorAssists: Samuel Girard, Alexandar Georgiev · Wrist, 0.01 xG0–1
- P1 14:55COLLogan O'ConnorGWGAssists: Miles Wood, Ross Colton · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–2
- P1 18:30COLNathan MacKinnonAssists: Jonathan Drouin, Mikko Rantanen · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–3
- P2 6:20LAKKevin FialaPPAssists: Alex Laferriere, Drew Doughty · Slap, 0.06 xG1–3
- P2 11:44COLJosh MansonAssists: Andrew Cogliano · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–4
- P3 0:31COLCale MakarPPAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Ross Colton · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–5
Penalties (12)
- P1 11:32COLDevon Toews: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 6:05COLKurtis MacDermid: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 6:44LAKKevin Fiala: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 16:13COLLogan O'Connor: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:13LAKMatt Roy: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:25LAKAdrian Kempe: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 2:30LAKArthur Kaliyev: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:12COLMikko Rantanen: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:27COLNathan MacKinnon: Interference2 min
- P3 9:33COLBowen Byram: Cross checking2 min
- P3 9:33LAKAlex Laferriere: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:50COLKurtis MacDermid: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kopitar won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestDanault – Fiala – Moore8:15
xG 0.68–0.21 (76%)attempts 12–6goals 0–2
- Lewis – Anderson-Dolan – Fagemo2:03
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Lewis – Fagemo – Kaliyev5:33
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Grundstrom – Dubois – Anderson-Dolan7:31
xG 0.25–0.38 (40%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDoughty – Anderson12:44
xG 0.29–0.18 (62%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
- Englund – Clarke9:17
xG 0.31–0.37 (46%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Gavrikov – Roy13:03
xG 0.24–0.44 (36%)attempts 7–12goals 0–1
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestCogliano – Johansen – Lehkonen7:25
xG 0.36–0.15 (70%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- MacDermid – Olofsson – Kiviranta5:40
xG 0.09–0.02 (80%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Wood – Colton – O'Connor9:04
xG 0.28–0.37 (43%)attempts 7–7goals 2–0
- MacKinnon – Drouin – Rantanen10:54
xG 0.19–0.41 (31%)attempts 9–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestGirard – Byram4:32
xG 0.37–0.11 (77%)attempts 7–2goals 2–0
- Toews – Makar13:02
xG 0.29–0.18 (62%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
- Johnson – Manson4:01
xG 0.12–0.15 (44%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).