Sat, Jan 27, 2024·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Boston Bruins 6, Philadelphia Flyers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 414 | 15 | 19 | 628 |
| PHI | 012 | 115 | 110 | 237 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:09BOSDavid PastrnakAssists: Pavel Zacha, Charlie McAvoy · Snap, 0.03 xG1–0
- P1 15:46BOSCharlie McAvoyAssists: James van Riemsdyk, Pavel Zacha · Snap, 0.15 xG2–0
- P1 16:47BOSDanton HeinenGWGAssists: Brandon Carlo · Tip-in, 0.17 xG3–0
- P1 18:23BOSDavid PastrnakUnassisted · Wrist, 0.17 xG4–0
- P2 1:15BOSJames van RiemsdykAssists: David Pastrnak, Hampus Lindholm · Snap, 0.38 xG5–0
- P2 15:23PHITyson FoersterAssists: Travis Sanheim · Snap, 0.10 xG5–1
- P3 11:24PHITyson FoersterAssists: Sean Couturier, Olle Lycksell · Snap, 0.12 xG5–2
- P3 14:45BOSCharlie CoyleAssists: Trent Frederic, James van Riemsdyk · Backhand, 0.12 xG6–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 2:14PHIScott Laughton: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:11BOSCharlie McAvoy: Interference2 min
- P3 1:56BOSMorgan Geekie: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:49BOSKevin Shattenkirk: High sticking2 min
- P3 7:01PHITravis Konecny: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 8:34PHIScott Laughton: Interference goalkeeper2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couturier won the faceoff against Zacha
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestvan Riemsdyk – Pastrnak – Zacha11:05
xG 1.84–0.19 (91%)attempts 16–12goals 3–0
- Heinen – Geekie – Boqvist11:27
xG 0.68–0.86 (44%)attempts 8–14goals 1–0
- Marchand – Coyle – Frederic10:03
xG 0.29–0.52 (36%)attempts 8–16goals 1–0
- Brown – Steen – Lauko8:23
xG 0.03–0.53 (6%)attempts 5–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestLindholm – McAvoy2:56
xG 0.57–0.05 (91%)attempts 6–2goals 1–0
- Lindholm – Carlo12:56
xG 1.16–0.64 (64%)attempts 10–14goals 4–0
- Grzelcyk – McAvoy13:31
xG 0.58–0.65 (47%)attempts 10–20goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestFrost – Cates – Farabee2:55
xG 0.40–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Poehling – Cates – Foerster5:49
xG 0.25–0.03 (88%)attempts 6–4goals 0–1
- Couturier – Lycksell – Foerster2:58
xG 0.23–0.01 (96%)attempts 4–1goals 2–0
- Atkinson – Frost – Lycksell6:07
xG 0.18–0.02 (90%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestYork – Drysdale3:10
xG 0.30–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Ristolainen – Sanheim3:38
xG 0.24–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Seeler – Walker11:35
xG 0.74–0.72 (51%)attempts 18–9goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).