Sat, Jan 27, 2024·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Washington Capitals 4, Dallas Stars 5 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 17 | 16 | 215 | 00 | 428 |
| DAL | 211 | 115 | 18 | 11 | 535 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:40WSHAnthony ManthaAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov, John Carlson · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–0
- P1 10:44DALWyatt JohnstonAssists: Roope Hintz, Miro Heiskanen · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–1
- P1 11:07DALThomas HarleyAssists: Jamie Benn, Sam Steel · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–2
- P2 6:24WSHRasmus SandinAssists: Nicolas Aube-Kubel, Trevor van Riemsdyk · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–2
- P2 11:00DALMason MarchmentPPAssists: Tyler Seguin, Miro Heiskanen · Tip-in, 0.15 xG2–3
- P3 2:24DALMatt DucheneAssists: Mason Marchment, Tyler Seguin · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–4
- P3 18:00WSHAlex OvechkinPPAssists: T.J. Oshie, Evgeny Kuznetsov · Slap, 0.07 xG3–4
- P3 19:17WSHDylan StromeAssists: Anthony Mantha, Alex Ovechkin · Snap, 0.16 xG4–4
- OT 3:27DALThomas HarleyGWGAssists: Jason Robertson, Matt Duchene · Wrist, 0.13 xG4–5
Penalties (4)
- P1 16:27WSHConnor McMichael: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:05DALMason Marchment: High sticking2 min
- P2 10:18WSHBeck Malenstyn: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 16:24DALSam Steel: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McMichael won the faceoff against Seguin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- Kuznetsov – Mantha – Aube-Kubel2:09
xG 0.07–0.06 (53%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Dowd – Aube-Kubel – Malenstyn10:15
xG 0.03–0.06 (35%)attempts 4–9goals 1–0
- Oshie – McMichael – Protas9:57
xG 0.39–0.49 (44%)attempts 9–19goals 0–1
- Ovechkin – Wilson – Strome9:52
xG 0.24–0.52 (32%)attempts 14–10goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestCarlson – Fehérváry13:22
xG 0.51–0.44 (54%)attempts 12–19goals 0–1
- Edmundson – van Riemsdyk2:07
xG 0.03–0.03 (52%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Jensen – Fehérváry2:49
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestPavelski – Benn – Steel11:29
xG 0.88–0.19 (82%)attempts 11–12goals 1–0
- Hintz – Robertson – Johnston11:11
xG 0.92–0.25 (79%)attempts 21–4goals 1–0
- Duchene – Seguin – Marchment10:46
xG 0.39–0.20 (66%)attempts 12–10goals 1–0
- Dadonov – Smith – Faksa9:22
xG 0.34–0.53 (39%)attempts 13–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHakanpää – Lindell13:50
xG 1.07–0.36 (75%)attempts 11–18goals 1–1
- Heiskanen – Harley18:10
xG 0.91–0.29 (76%)attempts 27–12goals 2–1
- Suter – Lundkvist14:47
xG 0.14–0.53 (20%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).