Sat, Jan 27, 2024·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Nashville Predators 1, Edmonton Oilers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 07 | 09 | 113 | 129 |
| EDM | 19 | 16 | 26 | 421 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:55EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsPPAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Connor McDavid · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–1
- P2 11:39EDMLeon DraisaitlPPGWGAssists: Connor McDavid, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Snap, 0.13 xG0–2
- P3 9:12EDMConnor McDavidAssists: Mattias Ekholm, Evan Bouchard · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–3
- P3 13:25NSHColton SissonsAssists: Luke Evangelista, Cole Smith · Bat, 0.18 xG1–3
- P3 16:41EDMZach HymanENAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Connor McDavid · Wrist, 0.75 xG1–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 6:38NSHJeremy Lauzon: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 10:54EDMZach Hyman: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 16:42NSHFilip Forsberg: High sticking2 min
- P2 5:01EDMLeon Draisaitl: Interference2 min
- P2 11:12NSHJeremy Lauzon: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 12:20EDMDarnell Nurse: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against Nugent-Hopkins
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestNyquist – O'Reilly – Forsberg12:36
xG 1.29–0.27 (83%)attempts 18–5goals 0–0
- Novak – Glass – Sherwood2:23
xG 0.22–0.03 (89%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Sissons – Gurianov – Trenin6:47
xG 0.58–0.42 (58%)attempts 5–11goals 0–1
- McCarron – Trenin – Smith2:46
xG 0.10–0.03 (77%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcDonagh – Schenn7:57
xG 0.88–0.04 (96%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
- Josi – Fabbro13:11
xG 1.10–0.96 (53%)attempts 18–13goals 0–0
- Lauzon – Carrier11:32
xG 0.49–0.37 (57%)attempts 8–10goals 1–1
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestPerry – McLeod – Holloway9:17
xG 0.54–0.32 (63%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Hyman – Draisaitl – McDavid13:29
xG 0.82–0.63 (57%)attempts 13–15goals 1–0
- Brown – Janmark – Ryan4:44
xG 0.05–0.18 (21%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Kane – Nugent-Hopkins – Foegele8:19
xG 0.04–1.06 (4%)attempts 3–15goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEkholm – Bouchard15:01
xG 1.11–0.91 (55%)attempts 10–14goals 1–1
- Kulak – Desharnais14:53
xG 0.21–1.07 (16%)attempts 15–17goals 0–0
- Ceci – Nurse16:27
xG 0.78–1.70 (31%)attempts 14–26goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).