Sat, Jan 27, 2024·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Buffalo Sabres 5, San Jose Sharks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 210 | 113 | 213 | 536 |
| SJS | 212 | 07 | 07 | 226 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:06SJSMarc-Edouard VlasicAssists: William Eklund, Ty Emberson · Slap, 0.02 xG0–1
- P1 10:42SJSJan RuttaAssists: William Eklund · Wrist, 0.01 xG0–2
- P1 14:14BUFJJ PeterkaAssists: Dylan Cozens, Owen Power · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–2
- P1 18:01BUFJordan GreenwayAssists: Alex Tuch, Casey Mittelstadt · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–2
- P2 1:36BUFAlex TuchGWGAssists: Casey Mittelstadt · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–2
- P3 4:33BUFJJ PeterkaAssists: Dylan Cozens, Jack Quinn · Slap, 0.07 xG4–2
- P3 15:44BUFDylan CozensENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.63 xG5–2
Penalties (10)
- P1 3:33SJSMike Hoffman: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:13SJSLogan Couture: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:43BUFHenri Jokiharju: Interference2 min
- P3 9:54BUFKyle Okposo: Interference2 min
- P3 9:54SJSKyle Burroughs: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:54BUFKyle Okposo: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:54SJSLuke Kunin: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:54BUFJeff Skinner: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:56BUFConnor Clifton: Interference2 min
- P3 14:56SJSWilliam Eklund: Embellishment2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thompson won the faceoff against Hertl
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestTuch – Greenway – Mittelstadt10:04
xG 0.80–0.20 (80%)attempts 11–12goals 2–0
- Cozens – Quinn – Peterka7:19
xG 0.60–0.19 (76%)attempts 13–13goals 2–2
- Robinson – Krebs – Benson11:04
xG 0.61–0.46 (57%)attempts 15–8goals 0–0
- Okposo – Skinner – Thompson11:27
xG 0.53–0.75 (41%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJokiharju – Power13:00
xG 0.68–0.31 (68%)attempts 16–14goals 2–0
- Bryson – Dahlin13:17
xG 0.93–0.59 (61%)attempts 14–17goals 0–1
- Dahlin – Power3:04
xG 0.17–0.02 (87%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestHoffman – Hertl – Zetterlund10:53
xG 0.53–0.39 (58%)attempts 13–14goals 0–0
- Bailey – Carpenter – Zadina6:10
xG 0.15–0.31 (33%)attempts 9–8goals 0–1
- Kunin – Sturm – Eklund5:49
xG 0.17–0.45 (27%)attempts 9–7goals 2–1
- Couture – Duclair – Barabanov9:57
xG 0.19–0.70 (21%)attempts 11–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Vlasic – Emberson13:34
xG 0.56–0.55 (51%)attempts 16–16goals 1–0
- Emberson – Mukhamadullin2:23
xG 0.11–0.16 (42%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Rutta – Mukhamadullin15:09
xG 0.42–0.90 (32%)attempts 21–19goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).