Sat, Jan 27, 2024·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Columbus Blue Jackets 4, Vancouver Canucks 5 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 04 | 414 | 09 | 02 | 429 |
| VAN | 012 | 18 | 312 | 12 | 534 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 4:30CBJAlexandre TexierSHAssists: Damon Severson · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–0
- P2 6:14CBJSean KuralyAssists: Alexandre Texier, Justin Danforth · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–0
- P2 15:20VANBrock BoeserAssists: J.T. Miller, Pius Suter · Tip-in, 0.09 xG2–1
- P2 17:27CBJJake BeanAssists: Egor Chinakhov · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–1
- P2 18:24CBJKirill MarchenkoPPAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Zach Werenski · Tip-in, 0.10 xG4–1
- P3 1:11VANElias PetterssonPPAssists: J.T. Miller, Quinn Hughes · Wrist, 0.07 xG4–2
- P3 3:24VANBrock BoeserPPAssists: Pius Suter, Quinn Hughes · Tip-in, 0.11 xG4–3
- P3 6:28VANBrock BoeserPPAssists: Elias Pettersson, J.T. Miller · Wrist, 0.37 xG4–4
- OT 4:01VANElias PetterssonGWGAssists: Brock Boeser, Quinn Hughes · Deflected, 0.24 xG4–5
Penalties (8)
- P2 3:24CBJDmitri Voronkov: High sticking2 min
- P2 10:11VANNils Hoglander: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:43VANNikita Zadorov: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 19:29CBJDamon Severson: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 2:22CBJDmitri Voronkov: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 4:35CBJBoone Jenner: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 11:55VANTyler Myers: Elbowing5 min
- P3 11:55VANTyler Myers: Game misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Voronkov won the faceoff against Pettersson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestJenner – Danforth – Fantilli2:09
xG 0.18–0.08 (70%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Kuraly – Danforth – Texier7:23
xG 0.16–0.33 (32%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
- Gaudreau – Chinakhov – Sillinger12:09
xG 0.38–0.64 (38%)attempts 14–12goals 1–0
- Jenner – Roslovic – Fantilli8:58
xG 0.14–0.63 (18%)attempts 2–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Peeke – Bean5:55
xG 0.02–0.02 (49%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Werenski – Bean6:16
xG 0.18–0.24 (43%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
- Severson – Provorov15:14
xG 0.56–0.62 (47%)attempts 18–14goals 1–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestBlueger – Joshua – Garland10:45
xG 1.14–0.12 (90%)attempts 14–4goals 0–0
- Miller – Boeser – Suter10:37
xG 0.73–0.22 (77%)attempts 19–7goals 1–1
- Pettersson – Mikheyev – Kuzmenko7:17
xG 0.31–0.30 (51%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Lafferty – Pettersson – Hoglander2:25
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHronek – Hughes18:00
xG 1.23–0.54 (70%)attempts 22–14goals 0–1
- Zadorov – Juulsen12:24
xG 0.88–0.25 (78%)attempts 17–11goals 0–0
- Cole – Myers10:05
xG 0.14–0.31 (32%)attempts 5–9goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).