Mon, Feb 5, 2024·Madison Square Garden, New York
Colorado Avalanche 1, New York Rangers 2 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 114 | 010 | 07 | 02 | 133 |
| NYR | 011 | 06 | 111 | 11 | 229 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:12COLNathan MacKinnonAssists: Cale Makar, Josh Manson · Snap, 0.09 xG1–0
- P3 11:17NYRArtemi PanarinAssists: K'Andre Miller, Braden Schneider · Snap, 0.03 xG1–1
- OT 1:53NYRAlexis LafrenièreGWGAssists: Mika Zibanejad, Jonathan Quick · Snap, 0.26 xG1–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 1:36NYRErik Gustafsson: Holding2 min
- P1 5:33NYRKaapo Kakko: Tripping2 min
- P1 10:53COLMikko Rantanen: Roughing2 min
- P1 10:53NYRK'Andre Miller: Roughing2 min
- P1 10:53COLMikko Rantanen: Cross checking2 min
- P1 12:24NYRAlexis Lafrenière: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Colton won the faceoff against Trocheck
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestWood – Colton – O'Connor11:17
xG 0.75–0.09 (90%)attempts 20–4goals 0–0
- MacKinnon – Drouin – Rantanen12:27
xG 1.07–0.65 (62%)attempts 13–18goals 1–1
- Parise – Johansen – Lehkonen6:44
xG 0.16–0.02 (90%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Cogliano – Olofsson – Kiviranta6:09
xG 0.02–0.19 (10%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMakar – Byram2:04
xG 0.51–0.11 (83%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Manson – Girard10:16
xG 0.39–0.12 (76%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Johnson – Manson4:44
xG 0.24–0.08 (75%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestBrodzinski – Kakko – Cuylle9:35
xG 0.45–0.31 (59%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Trocheck – Panarin – Lafrenière14:08
xG 0.56–0.59 (49%)attempts 13–12goals 0–0
- Pitlick – Goodrow – Vesey5:24
xG 0.11–0.24 (31%)attempts 3–7goals 0–1
- Wheeler – Kreider – Zibanejad11:44
xG 0.52–0.69 (43%)attempts 13–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMiller – Schneider16:06
xG 0.85–0.50 (63%)attempts 19–13goals 1–1
- Gustafsson – Jones14:17
xG 0.53–0.59 (47%)attempts 14–13goals 0–0
- Fox – Lindgren14:00
xG 0.41–0.52 (44%)attempts 11–14goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).