Tue, Feb 6, 2024·TD Garden, Boston
Calgary Flames 4, Boston Bruins 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 212 | 09 | 28 | 429 |
| BOS | 010 | 05 | 17 | 122 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:20CGYAndrei KuzmenkoPPAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Nazem Kadri · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 13:01CGYConnor ZaryGWGAssists: Nazem Kadri · Backhand, 0.07 xG2–0
- P3 4:14BOSPavel ZachaPPAssists: David Pastrnak, Charlie Coyle · Slap, 0.13 xG2–1
- P3 6:23CGYJonathan HuberdeauAssists: Nazem Kadri · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–1
- P3 9:44CGYNoah HanifinPPAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Jacob Markstrom · Backhand, 0.06 xG4–1
Penalties (14)
- P1 3:48BOSBrandon Carlo: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 16:00CGYMartin Pospisil: Cross checking5 min
- P1 16:00BOSBrad Marchand: Slashing2 min
- P1 16:00CGYMartin Pospisil: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 2:48CGYBrayden Pachal: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 3:40CGYMacKenzie Weegar: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 5:55BOSJakub Lauko: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 9:25BOSCharlie Coyle: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 10:07BOSCharlie McAvoy: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:16CGYBrayden Pachal: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:16BOSJakub Lauko: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:16BOSJakub Lauko: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 16:16CGYBrayden Pachal: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 16:16BOSCharlie McAvoy: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backlund won the faceoff against Coyle
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestHuberdeau – Sharangovich – Kuzmenko9:41
xG 0.44–0.12 (79%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Backlund – Coleman – Mangiapane10:25
xG 0.32–0.13 (71%)attempts 15–6goals 0–0
- Kadri – Pelletier – Zary2:53
xG 0.21–0.03 (87%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Kadri – Pospisil – Zary4:21
xG 0.09–0.11 (46%)attempts 5–5goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestTanev – Hanifin14:03
xG 0.77–0.17 (82%)attempts 18–11goals 0–0
- Weegar – Andersson15:08
xG 0.29–0.36 (44%)attempts 17–19goals 0–0
- Kylington – Pachal9:41
xG 0.23–0.51 (31%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestvan Riemsdyk – Geekie – Lauko3:00
xG 0.25–0.08 (75%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Pastrnak – Zacha – DeBrusk3:03
xG 0.08–0.01 (94%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Heinen – Steen – Boqvist5:43
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Marchand – Coyle – Frederic3:06
xG 0.08–0.07 (54%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLindholm – McAvoy3:01
xG 0.30–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Shattenkirk – Lindholm2:58
xG 0.07–0.02 (74%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Forbort – Carlo3:42
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).