Tue, Feb 6, 2024·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Vancouver Canucks 3, Carolina Hurricanes 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 112 | 14 | 13 | 319 |
| CAR | 14 | 18 | 012 | 224 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:25CARJordan MartinookSHAssists: Teuvo Teravainen · Backhand, 0.14 xG0–1
- P1 17:23VANElias LindholmPPAssists: Quinn Hughes, Elias Pettersson · Tip-in, 0.14 xG1–1
- P2 16:30VANElias LindholmPPAssists: Quinn Hughes, Brock Boeser · Tip-in, 0.10 xG2–1
- P2 18:32CARSebastian AhoPPAssists: Brent Burns, Seth Jarvis · Snap, 0.06 xG2–2
- P3 4:00VANJ.T. MillerGWGAssists: Brock Boeser, Tyler Myers · Backhand, 0.11 xG3–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 3:08CARSebastian Aho: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:17CARJack Drury: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 11:23VANIan Cole: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:01CARTeuvo Teravainen: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 18:10VANNils Hoglander: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Aho won the faceoff against Pettersson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestMiller – Boeser – Suter11:27
xG 0.62–0.06 (91%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
- Lafferty – Hoglander – Aman6:23
xG 0.02–0.31 (6%)attempts 3–11goals 0–0
- Blueger – Joshua – Garland10:24
xG 0.32–0.68 (32%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
- Lindholm – Pettersson – Mikheyev13:37
xG 0.27–1.05 (20%)attempts 7–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCole – Myers13:54
xG 0.49–0.32 (61%)attempts 9–12goals 1–0
- Hronek – Hughes16:54
xG 0.71–0.56 (56%)attempts 19–10goals 0–0
- Zadorov – Juulsen10:31
xG 0.22–0.84 (21%)attempts 7–14goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestBunting – Necas – Kotkaniemi5:35
xG 0.53–0.01 (98%)attempts 10–1goals 0–0
- Noesen – Lemieux – Kotkaniemi5:47
xG 0.15–0.02 (88%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Staal – Fast – Martinook4:57
xG 0.23–0.17 (57%)attempts 6–4goals 0–1
- Teravainen – Aho – Jarvis5:33
xG 0.03–0.01 (76%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOrlov – Chatfield14:08
xG 0.74–0.31 (71%)attempts 18–12goals 0–0
- Skjei – Pesce16:14
xG 0.66–0.52 (56%)attempts 14–13goals 0–0
- Burns – Slavin15:33
xG 0.61–0.50 (55%)attempts 13–8goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).