Tue, Feb 6, 2024·Prudential Center, Newark
Colorado Avalanche 3, New Jersey Devils 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 112 | 09 | 217 | 338 |
| NJD | 113 | 214 | 24 | 531 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:23COLMikko RantanenAssists: Jonathan Drouin · Snap, 0.14 xG1–0
- P1 2:05NJDChris TierneyAssists: Simon Nemec, Kevin Bahl · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 3:49NJDJesper BrattAssists: Nico Hischier, Ondrej Palat · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–2
- P2 6:47NJDDawson MercerAssists: Erik Haula, Timo Meier · Poke, 0.23 xG1–3
- P3 8:29COLCale MakarAssists: Artturi Lehkonen · Wrist, 0.23 xG2–3
- P3 8:58COLSamuel GirardAssists: Jonathan Drouin, Bowen Byram · Slap, 0.07 xG3–3
- P3 17:43NJDJohn MarinoGWGAssists: Nico Hischier, Jesper Bratt · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–4
- P3 19:58NJDErik HaulaENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.50 xG3–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 3:56NJDOndrej Palat: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 6:47COLRoss Colton: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 14:53NJDSanteri Hatakka: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:55COLArtturi Lehkonen: Holding2 min
- P3 4:06NJDSimon Nemec: Holding2 min
- P3 7:05COLRoss Colton: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:05NJDKevin Bahl: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:57COLFredrik Olofsson: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Haula won the faceoff against Colton
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestMacKinnon – Drouin – Rantanen10:28
xG 0.83–0.34 (71%)attempts 13–10goals 1–1
- Parise – Johansen – Lehkonen5:28
xG 0.16–0.18 (48%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Cogliano – Olofsson – Kiviranta3:54
xG 0.01–0.05 (16%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Wood – Colton – O'Connor8:32
xG 0.51–0.71 (42%)attempts 12–16goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestToews – Makar11:46
xG 0.70–0.28 (72%)attempts 17–10goals 1–1
- Makar – Byram3:09
xG 0.14–0.20 (41%)attempts 3–4goals 0–1
- Byram – Malinski9:18
xG 0.38–0.45 (46%)attempts 9–13goals 0–1
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestHaula – Meier – Mercer10:03
xG 0.57–0.43 (57%)attempts 14–11goals 1–0
- Tierney – Nosek – Holtz6:19
xG 0.25–0.21 (54%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Lazar – Willman – Bastian7:44
xG 0.18–0.30 (38%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Palat – Bratt – Hischier10:47
xG 0.51–0.77 (40%)attempts 14–14goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestMiller – Hatakka12:07
xG 0.64–0.26 (71%)attempts 15–16goals 1–0
- Bahl – Nemec11:48
xG 0.51–0.59 (46%)attempts 13–12goals 1–0
- Marino – Hughes15:48
xG 0.98–1.15 (46%)attempts 20–20goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).