Tue, Feb 6, 2024·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Edmonton Oilers 1, Vegas Golden Knights 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 18 | 012 | 011 | 131 |
| VGK | 113 | 08 | 25 | 326 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:35EDMConnor McDavidSHAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Vincent Desharnais · Snap, 0.23 xG1–0
- P1 18:06VGKNicolas RoyAssists: Alex Pietrangelo · Backhand, 0.14 xG1–1
- P3 1:24VGKChandler StephensonGWGAssists: Jonathan Marchessault, Paul Cotter · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–2
- P3 19:27VGKWilliam KarlssonENAssists: Chandler Stephenson, Mark Stone · Wrist, 0.71 xG1–3
Penalties (3)
- P1 2:37EDMDylan Holloway: High sticking2 min
- P2 6:16VGKKaedan Korczak: Slashing2 min
- P2 7:48EDMWarren Foegele: Holding the stick2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McDavid won the faceoff against Karlsson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHyman – Nugent-Hopkins – McDavid11:02
xG 0.81–0.19 (81%)attempts 20–7goals 0–1
- Kane – Draisaitl – Foegele8:44
xG 0.79–0.32 (71%)attempts 17–7goals 0–1
- Brown – Janmark – Ryan6:42
xG 0.41–0.04 (90%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Perry – McLeod – Holloway9:53
xG 0.20–0.02 (91%)attempts 14–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkholm – Bouchard17:52
xG 0.94–0.26 (79%)attempts 22–10goals 0–1
- Kulak – Desharnais12:11
xG 0.70–0.16 (82%)attempts 15–10goals 0–0
- Ceci – Nurse16:37
xG 0.71–0.61 (54%)attempts 25–14goals 0–1
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestStone – Stephenson – Cotter11:23
xG 0.51–0.41 (55%)attempts 15–15goals 0–0
- Marchessault – Barbashev – Roy10:57
xG 0.22–0.13 (63%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
- Kolesar – Howden – Brisson6:31
xG 0.29–0.33 (47%)attempts 3–15goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Amadio – Rondbjerg10:07
xG 0.09–1.17 (7%)attempts 3–18goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Martinez – Korczak2:17
xG 0.00–0.12 (0%)attempts 0–6goals 0–0
- McNabb – Korczak17:01
xG 0.72–0.90 (45%)attempts 19–23goals 1–0
- Martinez – Pietrangelo14:30
xG 0.45–0.65 (41%)attempts 14–16goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).