Wed, Feb 7, 2024·United Center, Chicago
Minnesota Wild 2, Chicago Blackhawks 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 111 | 08 | 16 | 225 |
| CHI | 01 | 19 | 011 | 121 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:27MINJake LucchiniAssists: Vinni Lettieri, Brandon Duhaime · Slap, 0.87 xG1–0
- P2 13:44CHINick FolignoAssists: Philipp Kurashev, Taylor Raddysh · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–1
- P3 10:07MINMarcus FolignoGWGAssists: Vinni Lettieri, Brock Faber · Tip-in, 0.16 xG2–1
Penalties (6)
- P1 5:43MINMarcus Foligno: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 12:45CHIMacKenzie Entwistle: Holding2 min
- P1 17:09CHIJaycob Megna: Holding2 min
- P2 9:08CHIJarred Tinordi: Fighting5 min
- P2 9:08MINMarcus Foligno: Fighting5 min
- P3 1:00MINMarcus Foligno: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dickinson won the faceoff against Hartman
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestDuhaime – Lettieri – Lucchini6:48
xG 1.47–0.34 (81%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- Foligno – Hartman – Gaudreau2:32
xG 0.20–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Foligno – Gaudreau – Rossi6:12
xG 0.23–0.09 (71%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Eriksson Ek – Kaprizov – Boldy2:26
xG 0.17–0.04 (80%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMerrill – Mermis13:02
xG 1.47–0.20 (88%)attempts 15–4goals 1–0
- Middleton – Faber18:45
xG 1.04–0.42 (71%)attempts 15–18goals 1–0
- Goligoski – Bogosian13:11
xG 0.50–0.98 (34%)attempts 10–16goals 0–1
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestBlackwell – Dickinson – Anderson10:01
xG 0.41–0.07 (85%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Foligno – Raddysh – Kurashev11:44
xG 0.59–0.33 (65%)attempts 13–12goals 1–0
- Sanford – Donato – Katchouk7:38
xG 0.13–0.25 (35%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Johnson – Entwistle – Reichel9:18
xG 0.34–1.74 (16%)attempts 6–11goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- Jones – Vlasic15:12
xG 0.46–0.48 (49%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
- Jones – Phillips2:41
xG 0.03–0.15 (17%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Jones – Korchinski2:52
xG 0.04–0.17 (18%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).