Thu, Feb 8, 2024·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Colorado Avalanche 2, Carolina Hurricanes 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 94% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 28 | 09 | 010 | 227 |
| CAR | 35 | 110 | 113 | 528 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:52CARMartin NecasAssists: Brady Skjei, Jordan Staal · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 6:25CARMartin NecasAssists: Brent Burns, Teuvo Teravainen · Slap, 0.11 xG0–2
- P1 16:51CARMartin NecasGWGAssists: Teuvo Teravainen, Jaccob Slavin · Snap, 0.20 xG0–3
- P1 19:33COLZach PariseAssists: Logan O'Connor, Samuel Girard · Snap, 0.18 xG1–3
- P1 19:38COLSamuel GirardAssists: Andrew Cogliano · Wrist, 0.00 xG2–3
- P2 12:06CARMichael BuntingPPAssists: Teuvo Teravainen, Brent Burns · Snap, 0.23 xG2–4
- P3 19:06CARSeth JarvisENAssists: Teuvo Teravainen, Sebastian Aho · Other, 0.75 xG2–5
Penalties (15)
- P1 8:15CARMichael Bunting: Boarding2 min
- P1 8:41COLJonathan Drouin: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:42CARJesper Fast: Hooking2 min
- P1 19:19COLRyan Johansen: Interference2 min
- P2 6:16CARJesperi Kotkaniemi: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 9:22CARMichael Bunting: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 10:25COLJonathan Drouin: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 15:28COLSamuel Girard: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 4:42CARJordan Staal: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 7:16COLJoel Kiviranta: High sticking2 min
- P3 9:14COLMiles Wood: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:14CARMichael Bunting: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:16CARJordan Staal: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 19:58CARBrendan Lemieux: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:58CARTony DeAngelo: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Aho won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestCogliano – Olofsson – Kiviranta4:37
xG 0.41–0.25 (62%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
- Drouin – Colton – O'Connor5:23
xG 0.08–0.09 (48%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Parise – Johansen – Wood6:34
xG 0.11–0.17 (39%)attempts 4–8goals 0–1
- Lehkonen – MacKinnon – Rantanen9:33
xG 0.42–0.67 (38%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestManson – Girard7:44
xG 0.50–0.30 (63%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Toews – Girard2:13
xG 0.10–0.04 (73%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Manson – Byram2:45
xG 0.01–0.04 (21%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Fast – Martinook9:24
xG 0.62–0.37 (63%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Bunting – Necas – Drury6:17
xG 0.33–0.14 (71%)attempts 9–3goals 1–0
- Teravainen – Aho – Jarvis5:39
xG 0.12–0.21 (37%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Noesen – Lemieux – Kotkaniemi5:03
xG 0.12–0.54 (19%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBurns – Slavin12:19
xG 0.94–0.51 (65%)attempts 12–16goals 1–0
- Orlov – Skjei9:27
xG 0.28–0.06 (81%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- DeAngelo – Chatfield10:15
xG 0.24–0.68 (26%)attempts 11–10goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 94% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).